Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?

● quote 11s ago
Finance→Geopolitics→Closes: 3 monthsLiquidity: $83.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $68.2KEvent: Crude Oil all time high by...?
12.0¢
YES
88.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly0direction0wallets0execution83priority0data 50%💡 5 smart
24h sample:7 trades$536 trackedsource coverage 1%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 620 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $30.6K net·5 wallets(2🐋)·$57.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$17.3K@ 86¢·65765757

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$536

5 verified profitable wallets: NO · $30.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 1%.
  • •Observed tape is 620 minutes old.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures. If finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period has not been published on the CME Group website within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the data published through all CME Group channels up to that point.

Recent definition/status changes
RULES CHANGED · 16d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
XAEA12Archangel2 linked markets · $11.0K gross
tetrose2 linked markets · $2.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 89.0¢5d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp24h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 87.0¢9d ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp24h STALLED +1.0pp
MARKET STATE16d ago
Outcome checks pending

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hYES · $169

YES price VWAP

Current12.0¢
VWAP 24h11.1¢▲ above by 0.9pp
VWAP 7d11.6¢
Largest observed holders

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$2.8K
15¢
$63.9K
10¢
← now
$126.1K
5¢
$3.7K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNO$16.7K@ 89.0¢
657657570x2974…9c23
🐋—5 days ago
BUYNO$12.9K@ 88.0¢
89343948390x88c4…129a
🐋—5 days ago
BUYNO$17.3K@ 86.0¢
657657570x2974…9c23
🐋—9 days ago
SELLNO$13.6K@ 80.2¢
XAEA12Archangel0xfbfd…0029
🐋—16 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

8934394839No$19.0K
BUY VWAP 87.7¢·2 fills
65765757No$16.7K
BUY VWAP 89.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.