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Iran leadership change by December 31?

● quote just now
Geopolitics→Politics→Closes: 4 monthsLiquidity: $114.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $61.6KEvent: Iran leadership change by...?
13.5¢
YES
86.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection41Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets8Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:26 trades$16.7K trackedsource coverage 27%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 15 min agoofficial metadata 5 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $397 net·4 wallets·$17.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$15.1K@ 84¢·0x8c66…44f3

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: $6.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$6.8K
6h
−$5.3K
tracked
$16.7K

4 verified profitable wallets: YES · $397 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 15 minutes old.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 16d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
thoodr2 linked markets · $20.2K gross
stupid222 linked markets · $11.7K gross
AlAhmeda2 linked markets · $10.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 85.0¢8d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp24h STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 84.0¢11d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $6.8K
6hNO · $5.3K
24hYES · $2.7K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current13.5¢
VWAP 24h14.6¢▼ below by 1.1pp
VWAP 7d15.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$17.1K
15¢
$227.4K
10¢
← now
$10.8K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLNO$10.4K@ 82.7¢
cripes30x8454…331a
🐋—7 days ago
BUYNO$15.0K@ 85.0¢
mm4ker0x8c57…f939
🐋—8 days ago
BUYNO$11.8K@ 84.0¢
GoriIIa0xfffa…864b
🐋—8 days ago
BUYNO$10.1K@ 84.0¢0xfc2f…10c7🐋—9 days ago
BUYNO$15.1K@ 84.0¢0x8c66…44f3🐋—11 days ago
SELLNO$11.9K@ 84.0¢
mr.ozi0x614d…1546
🐋—12 days ago
BUYNO$14.9K@ 82.0¢
Parz1vaI0xb100…6461
🐋—24 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.