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Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

● quote just now
Politics→Closes: 1 dayLiquidity: $103.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $180.7KEvent: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
41.0¢
YES
59.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly44Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets12Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority35Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:72 trades$52.6K trackedsource coverage 29%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 9 min agoofficial metadata 51s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $452 net·11 wallets·$8.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYES$13.7K@ 76¢·scottilicious

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

NO pressure: $1.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.2K
6h
−$3.5K
tracked
$52.6K

11 verified profitable wallets: NO · $452 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 72% · priority 35

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-20 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

Read full resolution rules

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
YoungAlphaGoat2 linked markets · $13.0K gross
dromedaryy2 linked markets · $12.2K gross
supersmard2 linked markets · $7.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

EVENT SHIFTBUY YES@ 56.0¢13h ago
Outcome checks pending

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $1.2K
6hNO · $3.5K
24hNO · $26.4K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current41.0¢
VWAP 24h62.1¢▼ below by 21.1pp
VWAP 7d69.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$46.6K
75¢
$62.0K
70¢
$23.9K
65¢
$655
60¢
$18.5K
55¢
$587
50¢
$7.7K
45¢
$4.3K
40¢
← now
$2.6K
35¢
$3
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLYES$13.7K@ 76.0¢
scottilicious0x000d…758e
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$11.9K@ 79.6¢
scottilicious0x000d…758e
🐋—10 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

YoungAlphaGoatNo$12.8K
BUY VWAP 27.3¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.