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Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

● quote just now
Crypto→Politics→Closes: 4 monthsLiquidity: $315.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $103.9KEvent: Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
16.5¢
YES
83.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly8Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority56Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:110 trades$18.3K trackedsource coverage 18%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 22s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $29.1K net·12 wallets·$32.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$594.2K@ 78¢·VelvetNova27

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW YES SETUP
What the tape says

YES pressure: $2.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.6K
6h
+$1.3K
tracked
$18.3K

12 verified profitable wallets: YES · $29.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 56

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 05:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 15.0¢2d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 87.0¢3d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp24h STALLED -2.0pp
COUNTER FLOWBUY YES@ 15.0¢3d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 15.0¢3d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $2.6K
6hYES · $1.3K
24hYES · $6.2K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current16.5¢
VWAP 24h16.4¢▲ above by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d14.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$171
25¢
$263.9K
20¢
$1.6M
15¢
← now
$1.6M
10¢
$703.9K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$15.0K@ 15.0¢
shadyjdz0x7b02…1fdd
🐋—3 days ago
BUYNO$83.8K@ 88.0¢
TahitiBob0xe609…d4d4
🐋—3 days ago
BUYNO$344.2K@ 86.2¢
TahitiBob0xe609…d4d4
🐋—3 days ago
SELLNO$55.4K@ 85.0¢
Istaroth0x9efd…ad00
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$61.5K@ 13.7¢
aenews20x44c1…ebc1
🐋—3 days ago
BUYNO$453.9K@ 84.6¢
TahitiBob0xe609…d4d4
🐋—3 days ago
BUYNO$41.2K@ 84.0¢
purplegatto0x032e…2a9e
🐋—4 days ago
BUYNO$12.9K@ 86.0¢
Attack-Titan0x9ff2…d02b
🐋—12 days ago
SELLYES$11.2K@ 14.0¢
Nopants0x94a5…4eb8
🐋—12 days ago
BUYNO$104.5K@ 85.0¢
KatsuManager870x19c3…87c1
🐋—13 days ago
BUYNO$222.1K@ 84.0¢
KatsuManager870x19c3…87c1
🐋—13 days ago
BUYNO$350.2K@ 83.0¢
KatsuManager870x19c3…87c1
🐋—13 days ago
BUYYES$19.4K@ 18.0¢
dromedaryy0x6575…b198
🐋—14 days ago
BUYYES$16.9K@ 14.0¢
ethBELIVER0x05f6…25a1
🐋—14 days ago
SELLNO$10.4K@ 86.0¢
lmtscapt0x5556…2759
🐋—14 days ago
SELLYES$12.9K@ 13.0¢
Istaroth0x9efd…ad00
🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$594.2K@ 78.0¢
VelvetNova270xf53e…16e3
🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$224.0K@ 76.9¢
VelvetNova270xf53e…16e3
🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$10.5K@ 76.0¢
jknio0x6b22…cf22
🐋—15 days ago
BUYNO$35.4K@ 76.0¢
sloxk30xdbca…57e3
🐋—15 days ago
BUYYES$19.1K@ 25.0¢
TwoEyes0xb1a2…372a
🐋—16 days ago
BUYNO$85.4K@ 73.5¢
asdf14120xface…9756
🐋—17 days ago
SELLYES$11.0K@ 18.0¢0xdbc5…9c30🐋—26 days ago
BUYNO$133.0K@ 80.0¢0x1ad3…6749🐋—26 days ago
BUYNO$97.5K@ 75.5¢
EamonnD18120xca79…4796
🐋—27 days ago
BUYNO$196.8K@ 77.6¢
EamonnD18120xca79…4796
🐋—27 days ago
SELLNO$12.7K@ 75.0¢
TruongMyLan0x6978…08d8
🐋—28 days ago
BUYNO$100.1K@ 75.4¢
EamonnD18120xca79…4796
🐋—28 days ago
BUYYES$10.2K@ 23.1¢
ImJustKen0x9d84…1344
🐋—28 days ago
BUYYES$25.6K@ 21.4¢
ImJustKen0x9d84…1344
🐋—28 days ago
SELLNO$24.8K@ 86.0¢
lmtscapt0x5556…2759
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$10.0K@ 86.0¢
acount30x65b5…aa71
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$10.8K@ 86.0¢
FaZeUp10x3881…804e
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$13.2K@ 73.3¢0x5a65…59c7🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$26.3K@ 64.5¢0x5a65…59c7🐋—about 1 month ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

TahitiBobNo$884.2K
BUY VWAP 85.5¢·4 fills
aenews2Yes$61.5K
BUY VWAP 13.7¢·1 fill
purplegattoNo$42.2K
BUY VWAP 84.0¢·5 fills
shadyjdzYes$35.1K
BUY VWAP 14.7¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.