MarbleConviction
0x70c14608f9c06ad9a5f48f1d6ddb6c0fc2d41be2
$-25359
Real PnL
-17.1%
ROI
$58.4K
Volume
$148.6K
Invested
18.8%
YES Bias
16
Trades (DB)
9/13
Markets Won
whale6Whale Activity — large wallet trades $10k+ in last 24h
Open positions:31 markets·current value $279.1K·8 closed
PnL by Market (39)31 open8 closed
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
● open Yes · $82.5Kin $30.0Kout $90.0Kunreal $-2550
$-15132
● open No · $49.8Kin $16.5Kunreal +$1.4K
● open No · $13.6Kin $13.5Kunreal +$137
● open No · $25.9Kin $11.1Kunreal +$172
● open No · $9.0Kin $8.9Kunreal +$140
● open No · $11.7Kin $26.4Kout $20.3Kunreal +$925
● open No · $6.6Kin $8.3Kout $3.0Kunreal +$753
● open Yes · $7.7Kin $3.9Kunreal +$51
● open No · $4.5Kin $3.7Kunreal +$61
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?
● open No · $3.4Kin $3.4Kunreal $-25
● open No · $14.4Kin $2.8Kunreal +$50
● open No · $17.8Kin $2.6Kunreal +$159
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?
● open No · $2.2Kin $2.2Kunreal +$6
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
● open No · $6.1Kin $2.0Kunreal $-62
● open No · $7.0Kin $2.0Kunreal $-6
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
● open No · $4.6Kin $1.9Kunreal $-61
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
● open No · $1.8Kin $2.3Kout $571unreal +$42
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?
● open No · $4.0Kin $1.5Kunreal +$48
Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31?
● open No · $1.3Kin $1.0Kunreal +$31
● open No · $891in $919unreal $-28
● open No · $739in $722unreal +$17
● open No · $521in $465unreal +$57
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
● open No · $421in $411unreal +$9
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?
● open No · $1.8Kin $434unreal +$48
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged?
● open No · $390in $381unreal +$9
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?
● open No · $378in $360unreal +$18
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31?
● open Yes · $41in $78unreal $-38
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?
● open Yes · $43in $45unreal $-2
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
● open No · $1in $128out $169
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?
● open Yes · $0in $24unreal $-1
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
● open No · $5in $4unreal +$1
● closedout $2.6K
● closedout $2.0K
● closedout $1.2K
● closedout $722
● closedout $655
● closedout $80
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?
● closedin $423out $444
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
● closedin $170out $164
| Market | Invested | Received | Unrealized | Trades | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House ●open Yes· $82.5K | $30.0K | $90.0K | $-2550 | 0 | +$57.5K |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? ●open No· $49.8K | $16.5K | $0 | +$1.4K | 3 | $-15132 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? ●open No· $13.6K | $13.5K | $0 | +$137 | 17 | $-13323 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? ●open No· $25.9K | $11.1K | $0 | +$172 | 6 | $-10948 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? ●open No· $9.0K | $8.9K | $0 | +$140 | 48 | $-8768 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? ●open No· $11.7K | $26.4K | $20.3K | +$925 | 96 | $-5148 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? ●open No· $6.6K | $8.3K | $3.0K | +$753 | 55 | $-4590 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? ●open Yes· $7.7K | $3.9K | $0 | +$51 | 43 | $-3845 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? ●open No· $4.5K | $3.7K | $0 | +$61 | 4 | $-3682 |
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? ●open No· $3.4K | $3.4K | $0 | $-25 | 7 | $-3466 |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? ●open No· $14.4K | $2.8K | $0 | +$50 | 15 | $-2768 |
| Trump out as President by June 30? ●open No· $17.8K | $2.6K | $0 | +$159 | 19 | $-2403 |
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31? ●open No· $2.2K | $2.2K | $0 | +$6 | 1 | $-2222 |
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? ●open No· $6.1K | $2.0K | $0 | $-62 | 3 | $-2064 |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? ●open No· $7.0K | $2.0K | $0 | $-6 | 4 | $-1981 |
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? ●open No· $4.6K | $1.9K | $0 | $-61 | 1 | $-1928 |
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? ●open No· $1.8K | $2.3K | $571 | +$42 | 23 | $-1665 |
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? ●open No· $4.0K | $1.5K | $0 | +$48 | 3 | $-1447 |
Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31? ●open No· $1.3K | $1.0K | $0 | +$31 | 1 | $-990 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? ●open No· $891 | $919 | $0 | $-28 | 5 | $-947 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? ●open No· $739 | $722 | $0 | +$17 | 1 | $-705 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? ●open No· $521 | $465 | $0 | +$57 | 3 | $-408 |
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? ●open No· $421 | $411 | $0 | +$9 | 1 | $-402 |
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? ●open No· $1.8K | $434 | $0 | +$48 | 1 | $-386 |
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? ●open No· $390 | $381 | $0 | +$9 | 7 | $-372 |
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? ●open No· $378 | $360 | $0 | +$18 | 1 | $-342 |
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31? ●open Yes· $41 | $78 | $0 | $-38 | 2 | $-116 |
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31? ●open Yes· $43 | $45 | $0 | $-2 | 3 | $-47 |
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? ●open No· $1 | $128 | $169 | +$0 | 2 | +$41 |
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? ●open Yes· $0 | $24 | $0 | $-1 | 1 | $-25 |
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? ●open No· $5 | $4 | $0 | +$1 | 1 | $-4 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? ● closed | $0 | $2.6K | — | 40 | +$2.6K |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? ● closed | $0 | $2.0K | — | 0 | +$2.0K |
| Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? ● closed | $0 | $1.2K | — | 24 | +$1.2K |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? ● closed | $0 | $722 | — | 18 | +$722 |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? ● closed | $0 | $655 | — | 15 | +$655 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? ● closed | $0 | $80 | — | 0 | +$80 |
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026? ● closed | $423 | $444 | — | 1 | +$21 |
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? ● closed | $170 | $164 | — | 4 | $-6 |
Recent Trades (16)
Trading Activity · 90d
4 active days
Category Accuracy
Entry Timing Before Resolution
1d–7d
6 betsunresolved0/0
>7d
9 betsunresolved0/0
Related Wallets · same markets (30d)