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Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat?

● quote 10s ago
Politics→ElectionsCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $8.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $18.9KEvent: AZ-01 House Election Winner

Indicative prices · 10s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

79.0¢
YES
21.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection54Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution65Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 54%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:6 trades$2.7K trackedsource coverage 14%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 49 min agoofficial metadata 33s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $918 net·4 wallets·$918 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$2.0K@ 83¢·mrworldwide

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: $1.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.5K
6h
+$1.5K
tracked
$2.7K

4 verified profitable wallets: NO · $918 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 54% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 49 minutes old.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-04 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.fec.gov/
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 3d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $1.5K
6hYES · $1.5K
24hYES · $2.7K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current79.0¢
VWAP 24h79.08¢▼ below by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d79.66¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$1.2K
80¢
$5.0K
75¢
← now
$1.7K
70¢
$887
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$18.1K@ 71.88¢
scottilicious0x000d…758e
🐋—about 1 month ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.