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Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Politics→Settlement: YESLiquidity: $111.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $162.4KEvent: Berlin State Election Winner
100.0¢
YES payout
0.0¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $6 net·2 wallets·$16 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$16.8K@ 64¢·0xf559…f462

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome YES. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-20 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

Read full resolution rules

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 6d ago
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 6d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET STATE6d ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 65.0¢9d ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h STALLED +2.0pp6h STALLED +1.0pp24h STALLED +1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 36.0¢10d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp6h STALLED +1.0pp24h STALLED -3.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 68.0¢10d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h INVALIDATED -7.0pp

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $8.0K
24hNO · $16.7K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h92.8¢▲ above by 7.2pp
VWAP 7d78.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$70.6K
90¢
$1.1K
85¢
$2.2K
80¢
$5.9K
75¢
$0
70¢
$1.7K
65¢
$65.5K
60¢
$53.7K
55¢
$1.4K
50¢
$3.8K
45¢
$2.6K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$11.6K@ 62.5¢0xf559…f462🐋—9 days ago
BUYNO$15.6K@ 34.6¢
NonceChaser0xb1ca…1705
🐋—10 days ago
BUYYES$16.8K@ 63.9¢0xf559…f462🐋—11 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

madkkeeYes$11.1K
BUY VWAP 71.2¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.