Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?

● quote 67 min ago

Crypto→Closes: 4 monthsLiquidity: $69.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $253.5KEvent: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

6.5¢

YES

93.5¢

1.0¢

Spread

anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution88Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:19 trades$122.2K tracked11% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 125 min agoofficial metadata 70 min ago

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$54.0K@ 96¢·AgricultureSecretary

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

YES pressure: +$3.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

+$3.8K

+$2.5K

tracked

$122.2K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$1.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?

1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Executable quote is 67 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 125 minutes old.
•Official market metadata is 70 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

climax

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2027-01-01 05:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Read full resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

0x5371…76eb3 linked markets · $59.1K gross

Mpire16 linked markets · $47.4K gross

0x1465…70725 linked markets · $47.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 94.0¢12h ago

15m STALLED -3.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 9.0¢12h ago

15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h+$3.8K

6h+$2.5K

24h+$58.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current6.5¢

VWAP 24h62.0¢▼ below by 55.5pp

VWAP 7d60.7¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

$54.0K

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

$28.0K

65¢