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BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo Musetti

● quote 370 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $261.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $699.2KEvent: BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo Musetti

Indicative prices · 370 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
Taylor Fritz
0.1¢
Lorenzo Musetti
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets80Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:187 trades$335.7K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 382 min agoofficial metadata 369 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Taylor Fritz · $23.7K net·9 wallets·$29.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLTaylor Fritz$29.2K@ 75¢·JivingJivan

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$335.7K

9 verified profitable wallets: Taylor Fritz · $23.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 370 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 382 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 369 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-20 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Taylor Fritz and Lorenzo Musetti in the BNP Paribas Nordic Open, originally scheduled for November 13, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Taylor Fritz' if Taylor Fritz advances against Lorenzo Musetti. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Musetti' if Lorenzo Musetti advances against Taylor Fritz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
redvinny2 linked markets · $34.3K gross
extra182 linked markets · $3.5K gross
fg383dgjdflk22 linked markets · $1.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL Taylor Fritz@ 75.0¢8h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
MARKET SWEEPBUY Taylor Fritz@ 76.0¢8h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Taylor Fritz8h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Taylor Fritz@ 61.0¢8h ago
15m CONFIRMED +14.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Lorenzo Musetti DOWN 6.0pp · near-book depth $2.5K → $6.3K · 8s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Taylor Fritz; negative values favor Lorenzo Musetti. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTaylor Fritz · $0
6hTaylor Fritz · $0
24hTaylor Fritz · $54.7K

Taylor Fritz price VWAP

Volume-weighted Taylor Fritz price. Lorenzo Musetti fills are converted to the complementary Taylor Fritz probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h78.55¢▲ above by 21.4pp
VWAP 7d78.55¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Taylor Fritz price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$70.7K
90¢
$42.8K
85¢
$10.3K
80¢
$24.5K
75¢
$66.0K
70¢
$529
65¢
$1.9K
60¢
$113.2K
55¢
$5.8K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLTaylor Fritz$28.5K@ 94.0¢
Mr.Ape0x26f8…3452
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYTaylor Fritz$10.3K@ 87.0¢
BLAHBLAHBLAH-2980x0210…4deb
🐋—about 7 hours ago
SELLTaylor Fritz$29.2K@ 75.0¢
JivingJivan0xd8c7…b481
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYTaylor Fritz$24.6K@ 63.25¢
JivingJivan0xd8c7…b481
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYTaylor Fritz$15.1K@ 60.74¢
Mr.Ape0x26f8…3452
🐋—about 10 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Fritz vs. Musetti: Match O/U 22.5
—$19.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Taylor Fritz (-1.5) vs Lorenzo Musetti (+1.5)
36.5¢$8.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fritz vs. Musetti: Match O/U 23.5
—$7.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo Musetti
57.5¢$5.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Taylor Fritz (-1.5) vs Lorenzo Musetti (+1.5)
52.5¢$3.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fritz vs. Musetti: Match O/U 21.5
—$320priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Taylor Fritz vs. Lorenzo Musetti: Total Sets O/U 2.5
41.0¢$86priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs. UNCW Seahawks
49.5¢$1.9Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

JivingJivanTaylor Fritz$24.6K
BUY VWAP 63.25¢·1 fill
Mr.ApeTaylor Fritz$23.7K
BUY VWAP 60.83¢·2 fills
LimousinTaylor Fritz$17.2K
BUY VWAP 77.64¢·6 fills
redvinnyTaylor Fritz$12.9K
BUY VWAP 78.31¢·5 fills
BLAHBLAHBLAH-298Taylor Fritz$10.3K
BUY VWAP 87.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.