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Spread: Heat (-2.5)

● quote 11s ago
Sports→BasketballCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $34.7KEvent: Cavaliers vs. Heat

Indicative prices · 11s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

50.5¢
Heat
49.5¢
Cavaliers
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection82Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%
24h sample:10 trades$13.6K tracked10% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 44 min agoofficial metadata 8 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHeat$11.1K@ 50¢·Lakersfan111

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Heat pressure: $11.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$11.1K
6h
+$11.1K
tracked
$13.6K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 44 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Heat or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-14 01:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Heat" if the Heat win the game by 3 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Cavaliers". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Cavaliers".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game between Cavaliers and Heat, originally scheduled for Friday, November 13, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve to "Heat" if the Heat win the game by 3 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Cavaliers". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Cavaliers". If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Sunday, November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Lakersfan1113 linked markets · $27.6K gross
quavoo3 linked markets · $11.4K gross
mooseborzoi2 linked markets · $7.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Heat; negative values favor Cavaliers. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHeat · $11.1K
6hHeat · $11.1K
24hHeat · $10.7K

Heat price VWAP

Volume-weighted Heat price. Cavaliers fills are converted to the complementary Heat probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.5¢
VWAP 24h50.07¢▲ above by 0.4pp
VWAP 7d50.07¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Heat price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$13.5K
45¢
$100
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYHeat$11.1K@ 50.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Cavaliers vs. Heat
43.5¢$171.1Kpriority55Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cavaliers vs. Heat: O/U 235.5
49.5¢$117.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)
—$1.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Heat (-1.5)
—$1.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Heat (-3.5)
—$935priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cavaliers vs. Heat: O/U 239.5
—$764priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cavaliers vs. Heat: O/U 237.5
—$375priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cavaliers vs. Heat: O/U 207.5
95.45¢$121priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Lakersfan111Heat$11.1K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.