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Will Jensen Huang join SpaceX by December 31, 2026?

● quote 16s ago
Tech→Closes: about 2 monthsLiquidity: $49.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $73.3KEvent: Will Jensen Huang join SpaceX by December 31, 2026?

Indicative prices · 16s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

7.35¢
YES
92.65¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution90Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 52%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:4 trades$6.3K trackedsource coverage 9%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 326 min agoofficial metadata 9 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $6.3K net·3 wallets·$6.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$2.6K@ 95¢·QMG-CORE

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$1.2K
tracked
$6.3K

3 verified profitable wallets: NO · $6.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 52% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 326 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jensen Huang is officially announced as accepting or beginning a formal role within the corporate or governance structure of SpaceX by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jensen Huang is officially announced as accepting or beginning a formal role within the corporate or governance structure of SpaceX by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, SpaceX includes Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SpaceXAI (formerly xAI), and any of SpaceX’s subsidiaries or controlled entities. Qualifying roles include employment, executive, officer, director, formal advisory, or governance positions at SpaceX, including membership in a body formally responsible for governing or overseeing the company. A role within a subsidiary or controlled entity of SpaceX will also qualify. Merely investing in SpaceX (including investments by NVIDIA), entering into a commercial or research partnership, informally advising, or working for an independent organization that collaborates with or provides services to SpaceX will not qualify unless Jensen Huang also accepts or begins a formal role within the company’s corporate or governance structure. An official announcement that Jensen Huang has accepted a qualifying role will be sufficient, regardless of when he formally begins serving in that role. The primary resolution source will be official information from SpaceX, the relevant governance body, Elon Musk, or Jensen Huang; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hNO · $1.2K
24hNO · $6.3K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current7.35¢
VWAP 24h6.36¢▲ above by 1.0pp
VWAP 7d6.36¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
← now
$3.7K
0¢
$2.6K

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.