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Spread: Magic (-3.5)

Sports→BasketballCloses: about 10 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $10.4KEvent: Magic vs. Jazz

Polymarket indicative prices · 8 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

49.5¢
Magic
50.5¢
Jazz
—
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection100Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%
24h sample:2 trades$3.8K trackedsource coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 27 min agoofficial metadata 8 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJazz$3.8K@ 50¢·RJW1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Jazz pressure: $3.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$3.8K
6h
−$3.8K
tracked
$3.8K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 27 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Jazz or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-12 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Magic" if the Magic win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Jazz". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Jazz".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game between Magic and Jazz, originally scheduled for Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve to "Magic" if the Magic win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Jazz". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Jazz". If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Friday, November 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xca6d…492b2 linked markets · $6 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Magic; negative values favor Jazz. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJazz · $3.8K
6hJazz · $3.8K
24hJazz · $3.8K

Magic price VWAP

Volume-weighted Magic price. Jazz fills are converted to the complementary Magic probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current49.5¢
VWAP 24h50.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d50.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Magic price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$3.8K
45¢
← now
$9
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

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Spread: Magic (-2.5)
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—$236priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.