Spread: Magic (-4.5)

● quote just now

Sports→BasketballCloses: about 10 hoursLiquidity: $69.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $140.1KEvent: Magic vs. Jazz

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

44.5¢

Magic

55.5¢

Jazz

1.0¢

Spread

anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets1Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution88Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:11 trades$66.2K tracked18% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 130 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Jazz · $354 net·3 wallets(2🐋)·$66.2K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMagic$32.9K@ 48¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

−$370

tracked

$66.2K

3 verified profitable wallets: Jazz · $354 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +4.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Observed tape is 130 minutes old.
•Less than 10h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-11-12 02:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/

Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Magic" if the Magic win the game by 5 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Jazz". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Jazz".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game between Magic and Jazz, originally scheduled for Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve to "Magic" if the Magic win the game by 5 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Jazz". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Jazz". If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Friday, November 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

0xca6d…492b2 linked markets · $6 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Jazz@ 52.0¢3h ago

15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp

LARGE FLOWBUY Magic@ 49.0¢5h ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Magic; negative values favor Jazz. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hMagic · $0

6hJazz · $370

24hJazz · $370

Magic price VWAP

Volume-weighted Magic price. Jazz fills are converted to the complementary Magic probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current44.5¢

VWAP 24h47.84¢▼ below by 3.3pp

VWAP 7d47.84¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Magic price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

60¢

55¢

50¢

45¢

$66.2K

40¢

← now

35¢

30¢

25¢

20¢

15¢

10¢

5¢

0¢

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago

Loading trades…

🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now

BUYJazz$28.1K@ 52.0¢

SineNooneEI0x3833…33d1

🐋—about 3 hours ago

BUYMagic$32.9K@ 48.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 5 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Magic vs. Jazz

58.5¢$43.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 217.5

43.5¢$8.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Spread: Magic (-5.5)

41.5¢$1.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 219.5

40.0¢$1.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Spread: Magic (-3.5)

49.5¢$734priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 215.5

48.5¢$653priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Spread: Magic (-2.5)

53.5¢$502priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 207.5

66.5¢$236priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Magic$32.9K

BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill

SineNooneEIJazz$28.1K

BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.