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Game Spread: Lorenzo Sonego (-1.5) vs Alejandro Tabilo (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $16.7KEvent: BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Alejandro Tabilo

Polymarket indicative prices · 14 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

48.0¢
Lorenzo Sonego
52.0¢
Alejandro Tabilo
15.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%
24h sample:4 trades$6.4K trackedsource coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 63 min agoofficial metadata 14 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlejandro Tabilo$3.3K@ 51¢·lzh1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$6.2K
tracked
$6.4K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
15.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 63 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 15.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-18 12:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Lorenzo Sonego" if Lorenzo Sonego wins 1.5 or more total games than Alejandro Tabilo in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for November 11, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Alejandro Tabilo".

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Lorenzo Sonego could no longer have finished 1.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Alejandro Tabilo".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Lorenzo Sonego" if Lorenzo Sonego wins 1.5 or more total games than Alejandro Tabilo in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for November 11, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Alejandro Tabilo". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Lorenzo Sonego could no longer have finished 1.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Alejandro Tabilo". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x9bfe…4a262 linked markets · $5.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lorenzo Sonego; negative values favor Alejandro Tabilo. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLorenzo Sonego · $0
6hAlejandro Tabilo · $6.2K
24hAlejandro Tabilo · $6.2K

Lorenzo Sonego price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lorenzo Sonego price. Alejandro Tabilo fills are converted to the complementary Lorenzo Sonego probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current48.0¢
VWAP 24h49.22¢▼ below by 1.2pp
VWAP 7d49.22¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lorenzo Sonego price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$1.1K
45¢
← now
$5.3K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Alejandro Tabilo
55.5¢$422.4Kpriority51Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Lorenzo Sonego (-1.5) vs Alejandro Tabilo (+1.5)
29.5¢$4.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Sonego vs. Tabilo: Match O/U 23.5
64.5¢$3.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Lorenzo Sonego vs Alejandro Tabilo
49.0¢$618priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Sonego vs. Tabilo: Match O/U 21.5
76.0¢$348priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Sonego vs. Tabilo: Match O/U 22.5
50.0¢$221priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Lorenzo Sonego vs. Alejandro Tabilo: Total Sets O/U 2.5
44.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Lorenzo Sonego vs Alejandro Tabilo
55.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.