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BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Alejandro Tabilo

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $234.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $300.1KEvent: BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Alejandro Tabilo

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

63.5¢
Lorenzo Sonego
36.5¢
Alejandro Tabilo
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets34Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority55Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:128 trades$177.5K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 59%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Lorenzo Sonego · $33.8K net·12 wallets(1🐋)·$100.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLorenzo Sonego$53.5K@ 58¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Lorenzo Sonego SETUP
What the tape says

Lorenzo Sonego pressure: $25.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$25.1K
6h
+$41.8K
tracked
$177.5K

12 verified profitable wallets: Lorenzo Sonego · $33.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 90% · priority 55

Since latest large flow: +5.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Lorenzo Sonego or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-18 12:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Sonego and Alejandro Tabilo in the BNP Paribas Nordic Open, originally scheduled for November 11, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Sonego' if Lorenzo Sonego advances against Alejandro Tabilo. This market will resolve to 'Alejandro Tabilo' if Alejandro Tabilo advances against Lorenzo Sonego. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x9bfe…4a262 linked markets · $5.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Lorenzo Sonego@ 59.0¢14m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Alejandro Tabilo@ 40.0¢41m ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp
Latest book event: Alejandro Tabilo UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $30.1K → $4.5K · 56s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lorenzo Sonego; negative values favor Alejandro Tabilo. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLorenzo Sonego · $25.1K
6hLorenzo Sonego · $41.8K
24hLorenzo Sonego · $34.1K

Lorenzo Sonego price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lorenzo Sonego price. Alejandro Tabilo fills are converted to the complementary Lorenzo Sonego probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current63.5¢
VWAP 24h58.92¢▲ above by 4.6pp
VWAP 7d58.92¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lorenzo Sonego price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$1.3K
60¢
← now
$66.2K
55¢
$110.0K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYLorenzo Sonego$53.5K@ 58.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—16 minutes ago
BUYAlejandro Tabilo$11.9K@ 39.58¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—25 minutes ago
BUYLorenzo Sonego$10.0K@ 61.0¢0x736a…f2cf🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYLorenzo Sonego$11.2K@ 59.17¢
ch27er0x61a3…e508
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Game Spread: Lorenzo Sonego (-1.5) vs Alejandro Tabilo (+1.5)
48.0¢$16.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Lorenzo Sonego (-1.5) vs Alejandro Tabilo (+1.5)
29.5¢$4.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Sonego vs. Tabilo: Match O/U 23.5
64.5¢$3.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Lorenzo Sonego vs Alejandro Tabilo
49.0¢$618priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Sonego vs. Tabilo: Match O/U 21.5
76.0¢$348priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Sonego vs. Tabilo: Match O/U 22.5
50.0¢$221priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Lorenzo Sonego vs Alejandro Tabilo
55.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Lorenzo Sonego vs. Alejandro Tabilo: Total Sets O/U 2.5
44.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Lorenzo Sonego$53.5K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·1 fill
VenusianAlejandro Tabilo$15.7K
BUY VWAP 40.0¢·2 fills
ch27erLorenzo Sonego$12.5K
BUY VWAP 59.26¢·2 fills
kkookkooAlejandro Tabilo$11.9K
BUY VWAP 39.58¢·1 fill
0x736a…f2cfLorenzo Sonego$10.0K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.