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Monastir: Marvin Moeller vs Aziz Ouakaa

● quote 10s ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $192.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $279.1KEvent: Monastir: Marvin Moeller vs Aziz Ouakaa

Indicative prices · 10s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

98.4¢
Marvin Moeller
1.6¢
Aziz Ouakaa
0.4¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection29Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority69Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 83%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:98 trades$91.9K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 33%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 2 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Marvin Moeller · $31.7K net·11 wallets(1🐋)·$47.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMarvin Moeller$21.5K@ 91¢·Woaifacai

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Marvin Moeller pressure: $26.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$26.8K
6h
+$31.5K
tracked
$91.9K

11 verified profitable wallets: Marvin Moeller · $31.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.4¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 83% · priority 69

Since latest large flow: +11.2pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 11.2pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Marvin Moeller or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-19 10:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Marvin Moeller and Aziz Ouakaa in the Monastir, originally scheduled for November 12, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marvin Moeller' if Marvin Moeller advances against Aziz Ouakaa. This market will resolve to 'Aziz Ouakaa' if Aziz Ouakaa advances against Marvin Moeller. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Marvin Moeller29m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Marvin Moeller@ 87.4¢35m ago
15m INVALIDATED -15.5pp
Latest book event: Marvin Moeller UP 3.7pp · near-book depth $92.1K → $2.0K · 11s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Marvin Moeller; negative values favor Aziz Ouakaa. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMarvin Moeller · $26.8K
6hMarvin Moeller · $31.5K
24hMarvin Moeller · $31.5K

Marvin Moeller price VWAP

Volume-weighted Marvin Moeller price. Aziz Ouakaa fills are converted to the complementary Marvin Moeller probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current98.4¢
VWAP 24h74.22¢▲ above by 24.2pp
VWAP 7d74.22¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Marvin Moeller price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$10.0K
90¢
$33.4K
85¢
$12.8K
80¢
$8.3K
75¢
$123
70¢
$202
65¢
$2.0K
60¢
$3.2K
55¢
$198
50¢
$4.3K
45¢
$57
40¢
$5.7K
35¢
$1.3K
30¢
$1.3K
25¢
$222
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$1.5K
5¢
$7.2K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 90¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMarvin Moeller$21.5K@ 90.98¢
Woaifacai0x9b89…4244
🐋—40 minutes ago
BUYMarvin Moeller$12.3K@ 85.9¢
Woaifacai0x9b89…4244
🐋—42 minutes ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

WoaifacaiMarvin Moeller$33.8K
BUY VWAP 89.07¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.