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Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

● quote just now
Politics→Geopolitics→Closes: 28 daysLiquidity: $174.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $49.6KEvent: Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
42.3¢
YES
57.8¢
NO
1.3¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection69Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets57Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution90Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority77Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:34 trades$21.4K trackedsource coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $620 net·5 wallets·$3.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$10.1K@ 52¢·kittyhello

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW YES SETUP
What the tape says

YES pressure: $13.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$13.5K
6h
+$16.4K
tracked
$21.4K

5 verified profitable wallets: YES · $620 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.3¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 85% · priority 77

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-28 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

Read full resolution rules

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 3h ago
DEADLINE CHANGED · 7d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x389d…58662 linked markets · $189.9K gross
Bigggggggg4 linked markets · $40.0K gross
0x3403…99063 linked markets · $20.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 54.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.4pp1h INVALIDATED -5.4pp6h STALLED -2.9pp24h INVALIDATED -3.7pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $13.5K
6hYES · $16.4K
24hYES · $16.6K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current42.3¢
VWAP 24h43.4¢▼ below by 1.1pp
VWAP 7d49.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$283
55¢
$51.7K
50¢
$206.2K
45¢
$32.1K
40¢
← now
$20.1K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$10.0K@ 51.5¢0x389d…5866🐋—1 day ago
BUYNO$10.0K@ 50.0¢0x389d…5866🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$10.1K@ 52.3¢
kittyhello0x79f8…9f03
🐋—2 days ago
BUYYES$13.3K@ 50.7¢0x00ec…8240🐋—2 months ago
BUYYES$11.0K@ 48.1¢0xcffe…cad8🐋—3 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x389d…5866No$20.0K
BUY VWAP 50.8¢·2 fills
kittyhelloYes$10.1K
BUY VWAP 52.3¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.