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Rolex Paris Masters: Casper Ruud vs Nuno Borges

● quote 930 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $141.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $926.8KEvent: Rolex Paris Masters: Casper Ruud vs Nuno Borges

Indicative prices · 930 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
Casper Ruud
3.1¢
Nuno Borges
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets96Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:217 trades$430.5K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 939 min agoofficial metadata 927 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Casper Ruud · $240.2K net·12 wallets(2🐋)·$249.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCasper Ruud$34.6K@ 66¢·juice-fruit

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$430.5K

12 verified profitable wallets: Casper Ruud · $240.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 930 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 939 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 927 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-13 19:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Casper Ruud and Nuno Borges in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 6, 2026 at 2:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Casper Ruud' if Casper Ruud advances against Nuno Borges. This market will resolve to 'Nuno Borges' if Nuno Borges advances against Casper Ruud. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xf12f…b30f2 linked markets · $4.8K gross
extra182 linked markets · $3.8K gross
Aussieoioioi2 linked markets · $2.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Casper Ruud@ 94.0¢16h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
ACCUMULATIONBUY Casper Ruud@ 65.0¢17h ago
15m CONFIRMED +5.0pp1h CONFIRMED +27.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Casper Ruud@ 67.0¢17h ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.0pp1h CONFIRMED +5.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Casper Ruud@ 69.0¢19h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Nuno Borges DOWN 6.0pp · near-book depth $39 → $4.8K · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Casper Ruud; negative values favor Nuno Borges. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCasper Ruud · $0
6hCasper Ruud · $0
24hCasper Ruud · $261.8K

Casper Ruud price VWAP

Volume-weighted Casper Ruud price. Nuno Borges fills are converted to the complementary Casper Ruud probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h71.5¢▲ above by 28.4pp
VWAP 7d71.48¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Casper Ruud price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$22.9K
90¢
$30.7K
85¢
$210
80¢
$5.4K
75¢
$30.9K
70¢
$27.9K
65¢
$283.3K
60¢
$30.8K
55¢
$962
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCasper Ruud$34.6K@ 66.0¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYCasper Ruud$19.3K@ 65.09¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYCasper Ruud$31.3K@ 67.99¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYCasper Ruud$24.8K@ 66.92¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYCasper Ruud$16.6K@ 66.58¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYCasper Ruud$25.2K@ 66.42¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYCasper Ruud$11.2K@ 66.79¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYCasper Ruud$15.1K@ 68.48¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 19 hours ago
BUYCasper Ruud$10.4K@ 69.0¢
maz260x6754…e3bc
🐋—about 20 hours ago
BUYCasper Ruud$11.2K@ 68.0¢
maz260x6754…e3bc
🐋—about 20 hours ago

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Ruud vs. Borges: Match O/U 23.5
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

juice-fruitCasper Ruud$175.9K
BUY VWAP 66.61¢·12 fills
VenusianCasper Ruud$36.8K
BUY VWAP 77.99¢·12 fills
redvinnyCasper Ruud$23.9K
BUY VWAP 80.35¢·13 fills
maz26Casper Ruud$21.6K
BUY VWAP 68.48¢·2 fills
kkookkooCasper Ruud$18.1K
BUY VWAP 68.31¢·2 fills
gq3g31egv1eqCasper Ruud$11.7K
BUY VWAP 66.22¢·2 fills
KkunnNuno Borges$11.1K
BUY VWAP 32.94¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.