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Rolex Paris Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs Ugo Humbert

● quote 147 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $331.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $477.5KEvent: Rolex Paris Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs Ugo Humbert

Indicative prices · 147 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
Matteo Berrettini
3.0¢
Ugo Humbert
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets11Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 14 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:189 trades$177.3K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 151 min agoofficial metadata 149 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Ugo Humbert · $3.9K net·14 wallets(1🐋)·$37.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLMatteo Berrettini$10.9K@ 89¢·0xf12f…b30f

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$38.9K
tracked
$177.3K

14 verified profitable wallets: Ugo Humbert · $3.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +82.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 147 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 151 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 149 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-11 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Matteo Berrettini and Ugo Humbert in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Berrettini' if Matteo Berrettini advances against Ugo Humbert. This market will resolve to 'Ugo Humbert' if Ugo Humbert advances against Matteo Berrettini. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x9e3e…f8822 linked markets · $1.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASESELL Matteo Berrettini3h ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPSELL Matteo Berrettini@ 82.0¢3h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Ugo Humbert DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $154 → $21 · 16s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Matteo Berrettini; negative values favor Ugo Humbert. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMatteo Berrettini · $0
6hUgo Humbert · $38.9K
24hUgo Humbert · $50.7K

Matteo Berrettini price VWAP

Volume-weighted Matteo Berrettini price. Ugo Humbert fills are converted to the complementary Matteo Berrettini probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h64.21¢▲ above by 35.7pp
VWAP 7d64.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Matteo Berrettini price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$18.0K
90¢
$23.0K
85¢
$13.5K
80¢
$7.7K
75¢
$292
70¢
$594
65¢
$14.3K
60¢
$6.6K
55¢
$4.9K
50¢
$3.4K
45¢
$48.7K
40¢
$21.6K
35¢
$14.7K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLMatteo Berrettini$10.9K@ 89.0¢0xf12f…b30f🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYUgo Humbert$10.2K@ 52.44¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 10 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

LimousinUgo Humbert$18.4K
BUY VWAP 38.61¢·12 fills
ferrariChampions2026Ugo Humbert$10.2K
BUY VWAP 52.44¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.