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Set 1 Winner: Maya Joint vs Maria Sakkari

Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $497Event: Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Maya Joint vs Maria Sakkari

Polymarket indicative prices · 14 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

79.5¢
Maya Joint
20.5¢
Maria Sakkari
—
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection100Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%
24h sample:1 trades$160 trackedsource coverage 32%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 34 min agoofficial metadata 14 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$160
6h
−$160
tracked
$160

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 34 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-11 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Maya Joint” if Maya Joint wins the first set. It will resolve to “Maria Sakkari” if Maria Sakkari wins the first set.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Maya Joint and Maria Sakkari in the Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Maya Joint” if Maya Joint wins the first set. It will resolve to “Maria Sakkari” if Maria Sakkari wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by November 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA match statistics. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Maya Joint; negative values favor Maria Sakkari. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMaria Sakkari · $160
6hMaria Sakkari · $160
24hMaria Sakkari · $160

Maya Joint price VWAP

Volume-weighted Maya Joint price. Maria Sakkari fills are converted to the complementary Maya Joint probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current79.5¢
VWAP 24h10.26¢▲ above by 69.2pp
VWAP 7d10.26¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Maya Joint price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
← now
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$160
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Maya Joint vs Maria Sakkari
55.0¢$39.8Kpriority52Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Maria Sakkari (-1.5) vs Maya Joint (+1.5)
17.0¢$1.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Joint vs. Sakkari: Match O/U 21.5
65.0¢$1.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Maria Sakkari (-3.5) vs Maya Joint (+3.5)
50.0¢$56priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Joint vs. Sakkari: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Joint vs. Sakkari: Match O/U 22.5
58.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Maya Joint vs. Maria Sakkari: Total Sets O/U 2.5
47.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Joint vs. Sakkari: Match O/U 23.5
67.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.