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Set Handicap: Billy Harris (-1.5) vs Jan Kumstat (+1.5)

Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $8Event: Taipei: Jan Kumstat vs Billy Harris

Polymarket indicative prices · 10 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.45¢
Billy Harris
99.55¢
Jan Kumstat.
—
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 55%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:1 trades$1 trackedsource coverage 19%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 76 min agoofficial metadata 10 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$1
tracked
$1

1 verified profitable wallet: Billy Harris · $1 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 55% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-11 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Billy Harris" if Billy Harris wins by 2 or more sets than Jan Kumstat, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Jan Kumstat."

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Billy Harris can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Jan Kumstat."

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Billy Harris and Jan Kumstat in the Taipei, originally scheduled for November 3, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Billy Harris" if Billy Harris wins by 2 or more sets than Jan Kumstat, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Jan Kumstat." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Billy Harris can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Jan Kumstat." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by November 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Billy Harris; negative values favor Jan Kumstat.. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBilly Harris · $0
6hBilly Harris · $1
24hBilly Harris · $1

Billy Harris price VWAP

Volume-weighted Billy Harris price. Jan Kumstat. fills are converted to the complementary Billy Harris probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.45¢
VWAP 24h29.0¢▼ below by 28.5pp
VWAP 7d29.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Billy Harris price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$1
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Taipei: Jan Kumstat vs Billy Harris
92.5¢$112.2Kpriority60Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Jan Kumstat vs Billy Harris
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Kumstat vs. Harris: Match O/U 22.5
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Set Handicap: Jan Kumstat (-1.5) vs Billy Harris (+1.5)
50.0¢$8priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Jan Kumstat vs. Billy Harris: Total Sets O/U 2.5
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kumstat vs. Harris: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kumstat vs. Harris: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
99.95¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kumstat vs. Harris: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
99.95¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.