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Taipei: Jan Kumstat vs Billy Harris

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $112.2KEvent: Taipei: Jan Kumstat vs Billy Harris

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

92.5¢
Jan Kumstat
7.5¢
Billy Harris
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection65Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets53Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority69Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:77 trades$83.4K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Jan Kumstat · $2.7K net·5 wallets·$3.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLJan Kumstat$33.5K@ 91¢·robustmst

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Jan Kumstat pressure: $28.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$28.6K
6h
+$27.0K
tracked
$83.4K

5 verified profitable wallets: Jan Kumstat · $2.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 69

Since latest large flow: +39.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable BUY price moved 39.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Jan Kumstat or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-11 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Jan Kumstat and Billy Harris in the Taipei, originally scheduled for November 3, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jan Kumstat' if Jan Kumstat advances against Billy Harris. This market will resolve to 'Billy Harris' if Billy Harris advances against Jan Kumstat. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Jan Kumstat15m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Jan Kumstat15m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Jan Kumstat@ 54.0¢17m ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Jan Kumstat@ 46.0¢21m ago
15m CONFIRMED +46.0pp
Latest book event: Billy Harris DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $10.0K → $4.6K · 11s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Jan Kumstat; negative values favor Billy Harris. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJan Kumstat · $28.6K
6hJan Kumstat · $27.0K
24hJan Kumstat · $32.5K

Jan Kumstat price VWAP

Volume-weighted Jan Kumstat price. Billy Harris fills are converted to the complementary Jan Kumstat probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current92.5¢
VWAP 24h62.5¢▲ above by 30.0pp
VWAP 7d62.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Jan Kumstat price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
← now
$40.4K
85¢
$3.9K
80¢
$1.3K
75¢
$24
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$26.0K
55¢
$85
50¢
$11.4K
45¢
$57
40¢
$0
35¢
$271
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 90¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLJan Kumstat$33.5K@ 91.19¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—1 minute ago
BUYJan Kumstat$24.8K@ 60.77¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—22 minutes ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set 1 Winner: Jan Kumstat vs Billy Harris
99.95¢$107priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kumstat vs. Harris: Match O/U 22.5
50.0¢$9priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Jan Kumstat (-1.5) vs Billy Harris (+1.5)
50.0¢$8priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Billy Harris (-1.5) vs Jan Kumstat (+1.5)
0.45¢$8priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kumstat vs. Harris: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
99.95¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kumstat vs. Harris: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kumstat vs. Harris: Match O/U 21.5
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kumstat vs. Harris: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
99.95¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

robustmstJan Kumstat$24.8K
BUY VWAP 60.77¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.