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Erste Bank Open: Alex de Minaur vs Carlos Alcaraz

Sports→TennisSettlement: Carlos AlcarazLiquidity: $222.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $553.4KEvent: Erste Bank Open: Alex de Minaur vs Carlos Alcaraz
0.0¢
Alex de Minaur payout
100.0¢
Carlos Alcaraz payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:136 trades$190.7K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 36 min agoofficial metadata 25 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Carlos Alcaraz · $45.6K net·9 wallets·$51.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLCarlos Alcaraz$16.5K@ 100¢·prabam

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Carlos Alcaraz. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-11-08 13:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Carlos Alcaraz in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for November 1, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Carlos Alcaraz. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Alex de Minaur. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 27m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 27m ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xd170…a7052 linked markets · $30 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alex de Minaur; negative values favor Carlos Alcaraz. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlex de Minaur · $4.2K
6hCarlos Alcaraz · $68.0K
24hCarlos Alcaraz · $70.6K

Alex de Minaur price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alex de Minaur price. Carlos Alcaraz fills are converted to the complementary Alex de Minaur probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h8.98¢▼ below by 9.0pp
VWAP 7d8.98¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alex de Minaur price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$19.6K
15¢
$30.7K
10¢
$10.7K
5¢
$80.2K
0¢
← now
$49.5K

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLCarlos Alcaraz$16.5K@ 99.9¢
prabam0xad82…1623
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesCarlos Alcaraz$30.1K
BUY VWAP 92.20¢·18 fills
dmoralezCarlos Alcaraz$20.2K
BUY VWAP 97.00¢·6 fills
0F62Carlos Alcaraz$13.4K
BUY VWAP 87.21¢·4 fills
FlaznorpCarlos Alcaraz$13.1K
BUY VWAP 93.67¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.