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UFC 334: Macy Chiasson vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweight, Early Prelims)

● quote 10 min ago
Sports→Combat SportsCloses: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $332.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $119.0KEvent: UFC 334: Macy Chiasson vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweight, Early Prelims)

Polymarket indicative prices · 12 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.05¢
Macy Chiasson
99.95¢
Bia Mesquita
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets55Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:36 trades$42.5K trackedsource coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 13 min agoofficial metadata 11 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Bia Mesquita · $9.3K net·6 wallets·$13.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLBia Mesquita$7.1K@ 100¢·blueebands

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Macy Chiasson pressure: $3.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$3.6K
6h
+$2.5K
tracked
$42.5K

6 verified profitable wallets: Bia Mesquita · $9.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 10 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 13 minutes old.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Macy Chiasson or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-15 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Macy Chiasson" if Macy Chiasson is officially declared the winner of the fight against Bia Mesquita at UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit, scheduled for November 14, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Bia Mesquita" if Bia Mesquita is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Macy Chiasson" if Macy Chiasson is officially declared the winner of the fight against Bia Mesquita at UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit, scheduled for November 14, 2026. It will resolve to "Bia Mesquita" if Bia Mesquita is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 28, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x076d…8d4c2 linked markets · $11.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Macy Chiasson; negative values favor Bia Mesquita. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMacy Chiasson · $3.6K
6hMacy Chiasson · $2.5K
24hMacy Chiasson · $2.4K

Macy Chiasson price VWAP

Volume-weighted Macy Chiasson price. Bia Mesquita fills are converted to the complementary Macy Chiasson probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.05¢
VWAP 24h12.42¢▼ below by 12.4pp
VWAP 7d13.95¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Macy Chiasson price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$9.8K
25¢
$10.2K
20¢
$0
15¢
$1.4K
10¢
$0
5¢
$1.8K
0¢
← now
$23.2K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.