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Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Venus Williams vs Mary Stoiana

● quote 48 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $308.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $426.3KEvent: Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Venus Williams vs Mary Stoiana

Indicative prices · 48 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.6¢
Venus Williams
99.9¢
Mary Stoiana
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly36Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets21Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:71 trades$128.1K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 55 min agoofficial metadata 49 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Mary Stoiana · $5.1K net·5 wallets·$24.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMary Stoiana$19.2K@ 88¢·999585

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Venus Williams pressure: $1.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.5K
6h
−$60.8K
tracked
$128.1K

5 verified profitable wallets: Mary Stoiana · $5.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +5.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 48 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 55 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 49 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Venus Williams or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-09 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Venus Williams and Mary Stoiana in the Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open, originally scheduled for November 1, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Venus Williams' if Venus Williams advances against Mary Stoiana. This market will resolve to 'Mary Stoiana' if Mary Stoiana advances against Venus Williams. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Mary Stoiana@ 95.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +1.8pp1h CONFIRMED +4.4pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Venus Williams; negative values favor Mary Stoiana. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hVenus Williams · $1.5K
6hMary Stoiana · $60.8K
24hMary Stoiana · $66.8K

Venus Williams price VWAP

Volume-weighted Venus Williams price. Mary Stoiana fills are converted to the complementary Venus Williams probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.6¢
VWAP 24h7.82¢▼ below by 7.2pp
VWAP 7d8.56¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Venus Williams price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$1
15¢
$16.8K
10¢
$49.8K
5¢
$34.6K
0¢
← now
$35.9K

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMary Stoiana$16.0K@ 94.0¢
9995850x88a6…7e77
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYMary Stoiana$19.2K@ 88.0¢
9995850x88a6…7e77
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set 2 Winner: Venus Williams vs Mary Stoiana
—$1.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Mary Stoiana (-5.5) vs Venus Williams (+5.5)
—$403priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Mary Stoiana (-1.5) vs Venus Williams (+1.5)
68.0¢$69priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Williams vs. Stoiana: Match O/U 21.5
—$26priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Venus Williams vs. Mary Stoiana: Total Sets O/U 2.5
—$6priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Williams vs. Stoiana: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Williams vs. Stoiana: Match O/U 22.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Williams vs. Stoiana: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

999585Mary Stoiana$35.2K
BUY VWAP 90.63¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.