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Rolex Paris Masters: Brandon Nakashima vs Matteo Berrettini

● quote 2 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $605.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $606.7KEvent: Rolex Paris Masters: Brandon Nakashima vs Matteo Berrettini

Polymarket indicative prices · 13 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.05¢
Brandon Nakashima
99.95¢
Matteo Berrettini
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection76Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%
24h sample:12 trades$48.0K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 8%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 31 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLMatteo Berrettini$22.4K@ 100¢·kkookkoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Brandon Nakashima pressure: $36.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$36.4K
6h
+$36.4K
tracked
$48.0K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 31 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Brandon Nakashima or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-09 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Brandon Nakashima and Matteo Berrettini in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 2, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Brandon Nakashima' if Brandon Nakashima advances against Matteo Berrettini. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Berrettini' if Matteo Berrettini advances against Brandon Nakashima. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Brandon Nakashima; negative values favor Matteo Berrettini. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBrandon Nakashima · $36.4K
6hBrandon Nakashima · $36.4K
24hBrandon Nakashima · $36.4K

Brandon Nakashima price VWAP

Volume-weighted Brandon Nakashima price. Matteo Berrettini fills are converted to the complementary Brandon Nakashima probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.05¢
VWAP 24h14.09¢▼ below by 14.0pp
VWAP 7d14.09¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Brandon Nakashima price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$1.7K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$1.7K
45¢
$0
40¢
$1.7K
35¢
$5.9K
30¢
$2.9K
25¢
$2.4K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$31.6K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLMatteo Berrettini$22.4K@ 99.9¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—33 minutes ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.