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Rolex Paris Masters: Alejandro Tabilo vs Rafael Jodar

● quote 280 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $206.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $409.0KEvent: Rolex Paris Masters: Alejandro Tabilo vs Rafael Jodar

Indicative prices · 280 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

1.3¢
Alejandro Tabilo
99.9¢
Rafael Jodar
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets66Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:128 trades$197.6K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 290 min agoofficial metadata 281 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Rafael Jodar · $52.1K net·12 wallets·$78.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYRafael Jodar$39.1K@ 87¢·999585

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$30.2K
tracked
$197.6K

12 verified profitable wallets: Rafael Jodar · $52.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 280 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 290 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 281 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-09 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alejandro Tabilo and Rafael Jodar in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 2, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alejandro Tabilo' if Alejandro Tabilo advances against Rafael Jodar. This market will resolve to 'Rafael Jodar' if Rafael Jodar advances against Alejandro Tabilo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
fastball673 linked markets · $8.5K gross
neutralwave232 linked markets · $222 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Rafael Jodar6h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Rafael Jodar@ 87.0¢6h ago
15m CONFIRMED +9.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alejandro Tabilo; negative values favor Rafael Jodar. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlejandro Tabilo · $0
6hRafael Jodar · $30.2K
24hRafael Jodar · $127.2K

Alejandro Tabilo price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alejandro Tabilo price. Rafael Jodar fills are converted to the complementary Alejandro Tabilo probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.3¢
VWAP 24h10.15¢▼ below by 8.9pp
VWAP 7d10.43¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alejandro Tabilo price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$257
20¢
$31.6K
15¢
$23.0K
10¢
$55.1K
5¢
$59.1K
0¢
← now
$33.4K

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYRafael Jodar$39.1K@ 86.96¢
9995850x88a6…7e77
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYRafael Jodar$14.1K@ 80.0¢0x7091…96f8🐋—about 7 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set Handicap: Rafael Jodar (-1.5) vs Alejandro Tabilo (+1.5)
—$14.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Rafael Jodar (-4.5) vs Alejandro Tabilo (+4.5)
—$14.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Tabilo vs. Jodar: Match O/U 21.5
51.0¢$393priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Tabilo vs. Jodar: Match O/U 22.5
43.0¢$50priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Alejandro Tabilo vs. Rafael Jodar: Total Sets O/U 2.5
—$35priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Alejandro Tabilo vs Rafael Jodar
—$31priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Tabilo vs. Jodar: Match O/U 23.5
—$24priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Tabilo vs. Jodar: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

999585Rafael Jodar$39.1K
BUY VWAP 86.96¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesRafael Jodar$21.8K
BUY VWAP 88.02¢·14 fills
FlaznorpRafael Jodar$15.4K
BUY VWAP 93.35¢·8 fills
0x7091…96f8Rafael Jodar$14.1K
BUY VWAP 80.0¢·1 fill
0x09be…9c32Rafael Jodar$12.4K
BUY VWAP 96.48¢·4 fills
dmoralezRafael Jodar$12.1K
BUY VWAP 95.57¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.