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Guayaquil: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Valerio Aboian

● quote 772 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $46.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $206.8KEvent: Guayaquil: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Valerio Aboian

Indicative prices · 772 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.1¢
Diego Dedura-Palomero
99.9¢
Valerio Aboian
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets94Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution20Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:44 trades$80.0K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 773 min agoofficial metadata 776 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Valerio Aboian · $11.1K net·8 wallets(1🐋)·$11.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDiego Dedura-Palomero$27.7K@ 77¢·0xc1a9…e2db

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$80.0K

8 verified profitable wallets: Valerio Aboian · $11.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 772 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 773 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 776 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-05 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Diego Dedura-Palomero and Valerio Aboian in the Guayaquil, originally scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Diego Dedura-Palomero' if Diego Dedura-Palomero advances against Valerio Aboian. This market will resolve to 'Valerio Aboian' if Valerio Aboian advances against Diego Dedura-Palomero. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Diego Dedura-Palomero@ 74.0¢18h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Valerio Aboian UP 7.6pp · near-book depth $5.0K → $108 · 5s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Diego Dedura-Palomero; negative values favor Valerio Aboian. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDiego Dedura-Palomero · $0
6hDiego Dedura-Palomero · $0
24hDiego Dedura-Palomero · $31.9K

Diego Dedura-Palomero price VWAP

Volume-weighted Diego Dedura-Palomero price. Valerio Aboian fills are converted to the complementary Diego Dedura-Palomero probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h41.61¢▼ below by 41.5pp
VWAP 7d41.61¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Diego Dedura-Palomero price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$35.3K
70¢
$1
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$5.5K
45¢
$333
40¢
$150
35¢
$0
30¢
$4.4K
25¢
$0
20¢
$142
15¢
$49
10¢
$6.2K
5¢
$885
0¢
← now
$27.1K

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYValerio Aboian$10.3K@ 97.8¢
Flaznorp0x821d…cf16
🐋—about 14 hours ago
SELLValerio Aboian$10.7K@ 95.58¢0xf12f…b30f🐋—about 14 hours ago
BUYDiego Dedura-Palomero$27.7K@ 77.06¢0xc1a9…e2db🐋—about 18 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set Handicap: Valerio Aboian (-1.5) vs Diego Dedura-Palomero (+1.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dedura-Palomero vs. Aboian: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dedura-Palomero vs. Aboian: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dedura-Palomero vs. Aboian: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Valerio Aboian
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Diego Dedura-Palomero vs. Valerio Aboian: Total Sets O/U 2.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Diego Dedura-Palomero (-4.5) vs Valerio Aboian (+4.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage
80.5¢$531.6Kpriority44Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xc1a9…e2dbDiego Dedura-Palomero$39.8K
BUY VWAP 67.39¢·4 fills
FlaznorpValerio Aboian$11.5K
BUY VWAP 97.8¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.