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Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5)

● quote 68 min ago
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $78.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $127.8KEvent: Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FURIA (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage

Indicative prices · 68 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
FURIA
1.0¢
Liquid
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets41Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution27Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:53 trades$47.0K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 89 min agoofficial metadata 70 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Liquid · $360 net·9 wallets·$881 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFURIA$14.4K@ 45¢·Lakersfan111

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$19.7K
tracked
$47.0K

9 verified profitable wallets: Liquid · $360 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 68 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 89 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 70 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-28 19:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "FURIA" if FURIA wins 2 or more maps than Liquid in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Liquid".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 5 match between Liquid and FURIA in the PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 28, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "FURIA" if FURIA wins 2 or more maps than Liquid in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Liquid". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 11, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 28, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The match is considered to have begun once live play begins in its first map or game. Warmup rounds and knife rounds do not count as the start of the match. A round forced live because a team did not ready up or resume play within the allotted time does not count as the start of the match if that team forfeits before the next round begins. If the match begins and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, the match will count as completed. In that case, any remaining maps required to decide the match, including a map in progress or not yet started, will be counted as won by the winning team. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Lakersfan1113 linked markets · $175.3K gross
aaaa2983 linked markets · $73.7K gross
1337zzz13372 linked markets · $57.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: FURIA UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $2.5K → $1.5K · 51s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor FURIA; negative values favor Liquid. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFURIA · $0
6hLiquid · $19.7K
24hFURIA · $192

FURIA price VWAP

Volume-weighted FURIA price. Liquid fills are converted to the complementary FURIA probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h47.38¢▲ above by 52.5pp
VWAP 7d47.38¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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FURIA price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$1.9K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$524
55¢
$661
50¢
$40
45¢
$34.8K
40¢
$9.1K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYLiquid$12.5K@ 55.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYFURIA$14.4K@ 45.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 9 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FURIA (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage
—$974.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner
—$603.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 2.5
43.5¢$9.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Liquid (+3.5)
43.5¢$2.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
50.0¢$710priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Liquid (+3.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Lakersfan111FURIA$14.4K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·1 fill
0xf559…f462Liquid$12.5K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.