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Counter-Strike: B8 vs Alliance (BO3) - Tesla Cup Group A

● quote 25 min ago
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $765.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $608.9KEvent: Counter-Strike: B8 vs Alliance (BO3) - Tesla Cup Group A

Indicative prices · 25 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
B8
0.1¢
Alliance
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly13Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets6Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 16 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:310 trades$187.8K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 26 min agoofficial metadata 28 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alliance · $450 net·16 wallets·$8.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlliance$25.0K@ 52¢·tankfest2027

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$723
6h
−$64.3K
tracked
$187.8K

16 verified profitable wallets: Alliance · $450 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +48.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 25 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 26 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-28 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "B8" if B8 win the match against Alliance.

•This market will resolve to "Alliance" if Alliance win the match against B8.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Elimination match between B8 and Alliance in the Tesla Cup Group A, initially scheduled for October 28, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "B8" if B8 win the match against Alliance. This market will resolve to "Alliance" if Alliance win the match against B8. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 11, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 28, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xc9bf…81c02 linked markets · $15.4K gross
0x9e3e…f8823 linked markets · $8.1K gross
Unknownpoluy2 linked markets · $4.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Alliance3h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Alliance@ 52.0¢4h ago
15m CONFIRMED +5.0pp1h INVALIDATED -17.0pp
Latest book event: Alliance DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $296 → $69 · 7s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor B8; negative values favor Alliance. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlliance · $723
6hAlliance · $64.3K
24hAlliance · $51.5K

B8 price VWAP

Volume-weighted B8 price. Alliance fills are converted to the complementary B8 probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h62.55¢▲ above by 37.4pp
VWAP 7d62.55¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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B8 price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$35.5K
90¢
$2.2K
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$1.7K
70¢
$4.9K
65¢
$45.1K
60¢
$512
55¢
$2.9K
50¢
$6.9K
45¢
$70.7K
40¢
$5.0K
35¢
$4.0K
30¢
$1.0K
25¢
$7.5K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLB8$23.3K@ 99.9¢0xe2d0…7bbf🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlliance$12.8K@ 54.0¢
Gooooooollllllllll0xda3a…381f
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYAlliance$25.0K@ 52.0¢
tankfest20270x4d6e…5cfd
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYB8$10.0K@ 69.77¢
salgnklasf0xdad3…61cf
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYB8$12.8K@ 67.0¢
lllllllIlll0xe40e…9770
🐋—about 8 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs Alliance (+1.5)
—$45.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 2.5
—$927priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
—$441priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map Handicap: ALL (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5)
—$12priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-6.5) vs Alliance (+6.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
—$1.4Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Nemiga (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage
51.5¢$1.3Mpriority43Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

tankfest2027Alliance$26.2K
BUY VWAP 51.90¢·2 fills
lllllllIlllB8$14.8K
BUY VWAP 63.00¢·4 fills
GooooooollllllllllAlliance$12.8K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill
salgnklasfB8$10.0K
BUY VWAP 69.77¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.