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Spread: UMass (-2.5)

Sports→American FootballSettlement: Ball StateLiquidity: $235.0KOfficial 24h Vol: —Event: Ball State vs. UMass
0.0¢
UMass payout
100.0¢
Ball State payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Ball State · $104.4K net·4 wallets(1🐋)·$104.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBall State$83.3K@ 50¢·0xb4f9…c9a7

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Ball State. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-11-05 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "UMass" if UMass win the game by 3 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Ball State".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for November 4 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "UMass" if UMass win the game by 3 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Ball State". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 6d ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 6d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Mastermoney2 linked markets · $335.3K gross
ethanaz2 linked markets · $158.2K gross
0xb4f9…c9a73 linked markets · $150.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Ball State@ 50.0¢6d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor UMass; negative values favor Ball State. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hUMass · $2.3K
6hBall State · $104.3K
24hBall State · $104.3K

UMass price VWAP

Volume-weighted UMass price. Ball State fills are converted to the complementary UMass probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h49.03¢▼ below by 49.0pp
VWAP 7d49.03¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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UMass price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$43
60¢
$1.0K
55¢
$13
50¢
$104.4K
45¢
$1.1K
40¢
$148
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$2.3K

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYBall State$83.3K@ 50.0¢0xb4f9…c9a7🐋—6 days ago
BUYBall State$19.5K@ 50.0¢0xb4f9…c9a7🐋—6 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xb4f9…c9a7Ball State$102.8K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.