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Guangzhou Open: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus

● quote 802 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $180.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $276.0KEvent: Guangzhou Open: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus

Indicative prices · 802 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
Paula Badosa
0.1¢
Sinja Kraus
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets88Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 56%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:97 trades$69.9K trackedsource coverage 25%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 814 min agoofficial metadata 804 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Paula Badosa · $21.4K net·9 wallets·$24.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPaula Badosa$9.8K@ 86¢·myxi

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$69.9K

9 verified profitable wallets: Paula Badosa · $21.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 56% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 802 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 814 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 804 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-04 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Paula Badosa and Sinja Kraus in the Guangzhou Open, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Paula Badosa' if Paula Badosa advances against Sinja Kraus. This market will resolve to 'Sinja Kraus' if Sinja Kraus advances against Paula Badosa. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Paula Badosa UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $129.5K → $48.5K · 32s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Paula Badosa; negative values favor Sinja Kraus. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hPaula Badosa · $0
6hPaula Badosa · $0
24hPaula Badosa · $32.0K

Paula Badosa price VWAP

Volume-weighted Paula Badosa price. Sinja Kraus fills are converted to the complementary Paula Badosa probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h87.41¢▲ above by 12.5pp
VWAP 7d87.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Paula Badosa price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$14.5K
90¢
$6.9K
85¢
$40.4K
80¢
$1.1K
75¢
$136
70¢
$30
65¢
$6.8K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

myxiPaula Badosa$11.5K
BUY VWAP 82.76¢·2 fills
0xf816…0433Sinja Kraus$11.0K
BUY VWAP 12.37¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.