PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Game Spread: Novak Djokovic (-3.5) vs Ugo Humbert (+3.5)

● quote 2567 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $2.7KEvent: Swiss Indoors Basel: Novak Djokovic vs Ugo Humbert

Indicative prices · 2567 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

43.5¢
Novak Djokovic
56.5¢
Ugo Humbert
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution49Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 52%
24h sample:3 trades$178 trackedsource coverage 7%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 106 min agoofficial metadata 31 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$178
tracked
$178

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 52% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 2567 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 106 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 31 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-03 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Novak Djokovic" if Novak Djokovic wins 3.5 or more total games than Ugo Humbert in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Ugo Humbert".

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Novak Djokovic could no longer have finished 3.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Ugo Humbert".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Novak Djokovic" if Novak Djokovic wins 3.5 or more total games than Ugo Humbert in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Ugo Humbert". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Novak Djokovic could no longer have finished 3.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Ugo Humbert". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x8a43…30da2 linked markets · $10.9K gross
kitopesivan2 linked markets · $131 gross
0xbfd7…f0bf2 linked markets · $76 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Novak Djokovic; negative values favor Ugo Humbert. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNovak Djokovic · $0
6hNovak Djokovic · $178
24hNovak Djokovic · $178

Novak Djokovic price VWAP

Volume-weighted Novak Djokovic price. Ugo Humbert fills are converted to the complementary Novak Djokovic probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current43.5¢
VWAP 24h42.98¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d42.98¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Novak Djokovic price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$175
35¢
$0
30¢
$3
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Swiss Indoors Basel: Novak Djokovic vs Ugo Humbert
—$1.0Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage
17.5¢$2.1Mpriority50Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
—$1.4Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-28?
51.5¢$822.3Kpriority68Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?
9.15¢$673.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
76ers vs. Pacers
70.5¢$503.0Kpriority64Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Thunder vs. Mavericks
65.5¢$464.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Heat vs. Hawks
43.5¢$438.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.