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Set Handicap: Arthur Fils (-1.5) vs Alex Michelsen (+1.5)

Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $210Event: European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen

Indicative prices · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

—
Arthur Fils
—
Alex Michelsen.
—
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%
24h sample:2 trades$97 trackedsource coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 514 min agoofficial metadata 516 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$97

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Indicative price is unavailable.
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-30 16:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Arthur Fils" if Arthur Fils wins by 2 or more sets than Alex Michelsen, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Alex Michelsen."

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Arthur Fils can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Alex Michelsen."

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Fils and Alex Michelsen in the European Open, originally scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "Arthur Fils" if Arthur Fils wins by 2 or more sets than Alex Michelsen, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Alex Michelsen." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Arthur Fils can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Alex Michelsen." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3b7b…c8602 linked markets · $2 gross
0xd9c9…66862 linked markets · $2 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Arthur Fils; negative values favor Alex Michelsen.. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hArthur Fils · $0
6hArthur Fils · $0
24hAlex Michelsen. · $97

Arthur Fils price VWAP

Volume-weighted Arthur Fils price. Alex Michelsen. fills are converted to the complementary Arthur Fils probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current—
VWAP 24h99.9¢
VWAP 7d99.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Arthur Fils price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$97
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen
99.95¢$497.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen
—$2.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Arthur Fils (-2.5) vs Alex Michelsen (+2.5)
—$467priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fils vs. Michelsen: Match O/U 23.5
—$290priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Arthur Fils vs. Alex Michelsen: Total Sets O/U 2.5
—$111priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fils vs. Michelsen: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fils vs. Michelsen: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fils vs. Michelsen: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.