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European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen

● quote 451 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $179.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $497.9KEvent: European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen

Indicative prices · 451 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.95¢
Arthur Fils
0.05¢
Alex Michelsen
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets8Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 64%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:110 trades$271.8K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 55%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 454 min agoofficial metadata 452 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alex Michelsen · $1.0K net·9 wallets·$12.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLArthur Fils$60.2K@ 100¢·778908

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$271.8K

9 verified profitable wallets: Alex Michelsen · $1.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 64% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 451 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 454 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 452 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-30 16:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Fils and Alex Michelsen in the European Open, originally scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Fils' if Arthur Fils advances against Alex Michelsen. This market will resolve to 'Alex Michelsen' if Alex Michelsen advances against Arthur Fils. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3b7b…c8602 linked markets · $2 gross
0xd9c9…66862 linked markets · $2 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Arthur Fils9h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Arthur Fils9h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Arthur Fils@ 83.0¢9h ago
15m CONFIRMED +12.7pp1h STALLED -1.7pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Arthur Fils@ 84.0¢9h ago
15m CONFIRMED +11.0pp1h STALLED -1.1pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Arthur Fils DOWN 3.2pp · near-book depth $50.9K → $355 · 10s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Arthur Fils; negative values favor Alex Michelsen. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hArthur Fils · $0
6hArthur Fils · $0
24hAlex Michelsen · $51.2K

Arthur Fils price VWAP

Volume-weighted Arthur Fils price. Alex Michelsen fills are converted to the complementary Arthur Fils probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.95¢
VWAP 24h88.74¢▲ above by 11.2pp
VWAP 7d88.74¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Arthur Fils price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$156.5K
90¢
$11.8K
85¢
$2.4K
80¢
$45.8K
75¢
$121
70¢
$5.3K
65¢
$16.4K
60¢
$28.4K
55¢
$2
50¢
$0
45¢
$3.3K
40¢
$1.8K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLArthur Fils$18.1K@ 99.9¢
7789080x3c3a…8b5f
🐋—about 8 hours ago
SELLArthur Fils$60.2K@ 99.9¢
7789080x3c3a…8b5f
🐋—about 8 hours ago
SELLArthur Fils$12.7K@ 99.9¢
7789080x3c3a…8b5f
🐋—about 8 hours ago
SELLArthur Fils$27.0K@ 99.9¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 8 hours ago
SELLArthur Fils$11.4K@ 97.42¢0x5ce4…62fc🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYArthur Fils$19.4K@ 82.0¢
7789080x3c3a…8b5f
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYArthur Fils$16.3K@ 83.0¢
7789080x3c3a…8b5f
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYArthur Fils$12.0K@ 65.42¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 10 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set 2 Winner: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen
—$2.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Arthur Fils (-2.5) vs Alex Michelsen (+2.5)
—$467priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fils vs. Michelsen: Match O/U 23.5
—$290priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Arthur Fils (-1.5) vs Alex Michelsen (+1.5)
—$210priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Arthur Fils vs. Alex Michelsen: Total Sets O/U 2.5
—$111priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fils vs. Michelsen: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fils vs. Michelsen: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fils vs. Michelsen: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

778908Arthur Fils$35.7K
BUY VWAP 82.45¢·2 fills
kkookkooArthur Fils$17.4K
BUY VWAP 64.32¢·2 fills
UpTheBluesArthur Fils$13.8K
BUY VWAP 92.66¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.