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Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $219.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $287.5KEvent: Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino
100.0¢
Nikoloz Basilashvili
0.1¢
Adrian Mannarino
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection49Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets97Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 14 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:139 trades$109.7K trackedsource coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 23s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Nikoloz Basilashvili · $19.7K net·14 wallets·$20.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNikoloz Basilashvili$8.1K@ 70¢·redvinny

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Nikoloz Basilashvili pressure: $52.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$52.8K
6h
+$50.0K
tracked
$109.7K

14 verified profitable wallets: Nikoloz Basilashvili · $19.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +11.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 11.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Nikoloz Basilashvili or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-30 06:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Nikoloz Basilashvili and Adrian Mannarino in the Almaty Open, originally scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nikoloz Basilashvili' if Nikoloz Basilashvili advances against Adrian Mannarino. This market will resolve to 'Adrian Mannarino' if Adrian Mannarino advances against Nikoloz Basilashvili. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x9e3e…f8822 linked markets · $6.4K gross
neutralwave232 linked markets · $95 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Nikoloz Basilashvili7m ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Nikoloz Basilashvili@ 89.0¢19m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Nikoloz Basilashvili22m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Nikoloz Basilashvili@ 71.0¢30m ago
15m CONFIRMED +21.0pp
Latest book event: Nikoloz Basilashvili UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $896 → $16.5K · 25s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Nikoloz Basilashvili; negative values favor Adrian Mannarino. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNikoloz Basilashvili · $52.8K
6hNikoloz Basilashvili · $50.0K
24hNikoloz Basilashvili · $52.1K

Nikoloz Basilashvili price VWAP

Volume-weighted Nikoloz Basilashvili price. Adrian Mannarino fills are converted to the complementary Nikoloz Basilashvili probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h69.7¢▲ above by 30.3pp
VWAP 7d69.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Nikoloz Basilashvili price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$11.3K
90¢
$13.0K
85¢
$10.1K
80¢
$4.0K
75¢
$315
70¢
$17.9K
65¢
$11.4K
60¢
$7.5K
55¢
$2.2K
50¢
$11.0K
45¢
$14.1K
40¢
$6.9K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Basilashvili vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢$3.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino
0.0¢$948priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Nikoloz Basilashvili vs. Adrian Mannarino: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢$388priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Nikoloz Basilashvili (-1.5) vs Adrian Mannarino (+1.5)
0.0¢$61priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Basilashvili vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢$58priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Nikoloz Basilashvili (-1.5) vs Adrian Mannarino (+1.5)
0.0¢$52priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Basilashvili vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢$2priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Basilashvili vs. Mannarino: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesNikoloz Basilashvili$32.1K
BUY VWAP 69.6¢·19 fills
0x09be…9c32Nikoloz Basilashvili$10.0K
BUY VWAP 92.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.