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Almaty Open: Tomas Machac vs Karen Khachanov

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $94.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $530.1KEvent: Almaty Open: Tomas Machac vs Karen Khachanov
0.1¢
Tomas Machac
100.0¢
Karen Khachanov
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection20Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets68Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority65Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 17 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:267 trades$231.8K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 30s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Karen Khachanov · $58.5K net·17 wallets(1🐋)·$86.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKaren Khachanov$14.3K@ 61¢·0x076d…8d4c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Karen Khachanov pressure: $45.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$45.5K
6h
−$130.3K
tracked
$231.8K

17 verified profitable wallets: Karen Khachanov · $58.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 65

Since latest large flow: +31.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 31.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Karen Khachanov or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-29 06:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Tomas Machac and Karen Khachanov in the Almaty Open, originally scheduled for October 22, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Machac' if Tomas Machac advances against Karen Khachanov. This market will resolve to 'Karen Khachanov' if Karen Khachanov advances against Tomas Machac. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
neutralwave233 linked markets · $1.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Karen Khachanov@ 69.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -19.0pp1h INVALIDATED -17.0pp
Latest book event: Tomas Machac DOWN 23.5pp · near-book depth $33 → $4 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Tomas Machac; negative values favor Karen Khachanov. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hKaren Khachanov · $45.5K
6hKaren Khachanov · $130.3K
24hKaren Khachanov · $137.5K

Tomas Machac price VWAP

Volume-weighted Tomas Machac price. Karen Khachanov fills are converted to the complementary Tomas Machac probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h40.5¢▼ below by 40.4pp
VWAP 7d40.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Tomas Machac price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$11.2K
65¢
$4.8K
60¢
$9.3K
55¢
$7.3K
50¢
$36.2K
45¢
$32.7K
40¢
$21.1K
35¢
$24.7K
30¢
$29.2K
25¢
$24.8K
20¢
$3.0K
15¢
$4.7K
10¢
$22.9K
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYKaren Khachanov$11.1K@ 50.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—31 minutes ago
BUYKaren Khachanov$10.0K@ 50.0¢
tiger1050x0d23…2d56
🐋—31 minutes ago
BUYKaren Khachanov$14.3K@ 60.9¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYKaren Khachanov$12.7K@ 86.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x076d…8d4cKaren Khachanov$48.3K
BUY VWAP 62.6¢·5 fills
UpTheBluesKaren Khachanov$12.5K
BUY VWAP 74.9¢·10 fills
KkunnKaren Khachanov$12.0K
BUY VWAP 57.8¢·2 fills
tiger105Karen Khachanov$10.0K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.