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Guangzhou 2: Keegan Smith vs Fajing Sun

● quote 28 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $58.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $150.1KEvent: Guangzhou 2: Keegan Smith vs Fajing Sun
99.9¢
Keegan Smith
11.0¢
Fajing Sun
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection23Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets82Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution23Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 56%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:129 trades$35.6K trackedsource coverage 24%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 44 min agoofficial metadata 31 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Fajing Sun · $3.4K net·8 wallets·$4.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLKeegan Smith$5.2K@ 66¢·0x9410…ffcd

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Fajing Sun pressure: $8.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$8.3K
6h
−$6.2K
tracked
$35.6K

8 verified profitable wallets: Fajing Sun · $3.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 56% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 28 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 44 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 31 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Fajing Sun or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-29 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Keegan Smith and Fajing Sun in the Guangzhou 2, originally scheduled for October 21, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Keegan Smith' if Keegan Smith advances against Fajing Sun. This market will resolve to 'Fajing Sun' if Fajing Sun advances against Keegan Smith. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Fajing Sun DOWN 9.5pp · near-book depth $58 → $45 · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Keegan Smith; negative values favor Fajing Sun. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFajing Sun · $8.3K
6hFajing Sun · $6.2K
24hFajing Sun · $5.2K

Keegan Smith price VWAP

Volume-weighted Keegan Smith price. Fajing Sun fills are converted to the complementary Keegan Smith probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h67.7¢▲ above by 32.3pp
VWAP 7d67.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Keegan Smith price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$10.1K
90¢
$0
85¢
$2.3K
80¢
$19
75¢
$0
70¢
$600
65¢
$7.0K
60¢
$1.1K
55¢
$141
50¢
$4.3K
45¢
$5.6K
40¢
$977
35¢
$61
30¢
$8
25¢
$1.0K
20¢
$2.3K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.