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Lisbon: Marco Trungelliti vs Carlo Alberto Caniato

● quote 99 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $590.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $209.5KEvent: Lisbon: Marco Trungelliti vs Carlo Alberto Caniato
99.9¢
Marco Trungelliti
3.0¢
Carlo Alberto Caniato
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets26Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:75 trades$100.2K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 126 min agoofficial metadata 98 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Marco Trungelliti · $703 net·8 wallets·$2.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCarlo Alberto Caniato$55.8K@ 81¢·tin54321

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$68.6K
tracked
$100.2K

8 verified profitable wallets: Marco Trungelliti · $703 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +15.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 99 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 126 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 98 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-28 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Marco Trungelliti and Carlo Alberto Caniato in the Lisbon, originally scheduled for October 21, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marco Trungelliti' if Marco Trungelliti advances against Carlo Alberto Caniato. This market will resolve to 'Carlo Alberto Caniato' if Carlo Alberto Caniato advances against Marco Trungelliti. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Carlo Alberto Caniato@ 85.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -12.0pp1h INVALIDATED -38.0pp
Latest book event: Carlo Alberto Caniato DOWN 12.0pp · near-book depth $5.1K → $1.2K · 62s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Marco Trungelliti; negative values favor Carlo Alberto Caniato. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMarco Trungelliti · $0
6hCarlo Alberto Caniato · $68.6K
24hCarlo Alberto Caniato · $68.6K

Marco Trungelliti price VWAP

Volume-weighted Marco Trungelliti price. Carlo Alberto Caniato fills are converted to the complementary Marco Trungelliti probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h39.7¢▲ above by 60.2pp
VWAP 7d39.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Marco Trungelliti price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$13.8K
90¢
$5.4K
85¢
$76
80¢
$8
75¢
$5.0K
70¢
$7
65¢
$0
60¢
$68
55¢
$4.6K
50¢
$1.7K
45¢
$130
40¢
$423
35¢
$10
30¢
$271
25¢
$540
20¢
$1.4K
15¢
$65.9K
10¢
$920
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCarlo Alberto Caniato$55.8K@ 80.5¢
tin543210x91e6…e9c5
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

tin54321Carlo Alberto Caniato$64.4K
BUY VWAP 80.8¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.