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Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 3.5

● quote 47s ago
Sports→BasketballCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $14.8KEvent: Pacers vs. Pelicans
0.4¢
YES
99.7¢
NO
0.3¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution68Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%
24h sample:1 trades$1 trackedsource coverage 0%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 633 min agoofficial metadata 12 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$1

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.3¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 0%.
  • •Observed tape is 633 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-22 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if Aaron Nesmith records more than 3.5 total rebounds during the game.

•This market will resolve to "No" if Aaron Nesmith records 3.5 rebounds or fewer during the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 21 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Aaron Nesmith records more than 3.5 total rebounds during the game. This market will resolve to "No" if Aaron Nesmith records 3.5 rebounds or fewer during the game. The entire game including all overtime periods will be considered. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not take the court at any point, the market will resolve "No". The resolution source will be the official NBA box score as published on NBA.com.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
alwaysfade2 linked markets · $89.6K gross
SunlineTicker3 linked markets · $16.0K gross
HomeRunHazard4 linked markets · $13.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hYES · $1

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.4¢
VWAP 24h5.3¢▼ below by 4.9pp
VWAP 7d5.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$1
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Pacers vs. Pelicans
57.5¢$470.1Kpriority61Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Pacers (-3.5)
47.5¢$277.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Pacers (-2.5)
52.5¢$29.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Pacers (-1.5)
55.5¢$20.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Pacers (-5.5)
41.5¢$14.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Pacers vs. Pelicans: O/U 254.5
21.0¢$13.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Pacers (-17.5)
13.0¢$12.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Pacers vs. Pelicans: O/U 242.5
43.0¢$12.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.