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Spread: Pacers (-3.5)

● quote just now
Sports→BasketballCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $603.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $262.8KEvent: Pacers vs. Pelicans
48.5¢
Pacers
51.5¢
Pelicans
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection17Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets47Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority58Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:58 trades$115.9K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 9 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Pacers · $5.4K net·5 wallets·$11.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPelicans$21.1K@ 51¢·0x2ce8…4527

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Pelicans SETUP
What the tape says

Pelicans pressure: $19.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$19.5K
6h
+$6.8K
tracked
$115.9K

5 verified profitable wallets: Pacers · $5.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 58

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Pelicans or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-22 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Pacers" if the Pacers win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Pelicans". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Pelicans".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 21 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Pacers" if the Pacers win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Pelicans". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Pelicans". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
SunlineTicker3 linked markets · $16.0K gross
HomeRunHazard4 linked markets · $13.4K gross
lightotunnel352 linked markets · $9.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Pacers; negative values favor Pelicans. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hPelicans · $19.5K
6hPacers · $6.8K
24hPacers · $39.5K

Pacers price VWAP

Volume-weighted Pacers price. Pelicans fills are converted to the complementary Pacers probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current48.5¢
VWAP 24h49.7¢▼ below by 1.2pp
VWAP 7d49.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Pacers price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$71.0K
45¢
← now
$44.9K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYPelicans$21.1K@ 51.0¢0x2ce8…4527🐋—23 minutes ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Pacers vs. Pelicans
57.5¢$459.6Kpriority70Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Pacers (-1.5)
55.5¢$18.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 3.5
0.4¢$16.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Pacers vs. Pelicans: O/U 254.5
21.0¢$13.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Pacers (-17.5)
12.5¢$12.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Pacers vs. Pelicans: O/U 242.5
43.0¢$12.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Pacers (-2.5)
53.5¢$10.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Pacers vs. Pelicans: O/U 240.5
0.0¢$6.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2ce8…4527Pelicans$21.1K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.