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Lyon Open: Hamad Medjedovic vs Brandon Nakashima

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 5 daysLiquidity: $253.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $228.3KEvent: Lyon Open: Hamad Medjedovic vs Brandon Nakashima
7.5¢
Hamad Medjedovic
92.5¢
Brandon Nakashima
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection27Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets52Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority63Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:97 trades$95.0K trackedsource coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 2 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Brandon Nakashima · $8.8K net·8 wallets·$17.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHamad Medjedovic$5.2K@ 26¢·one8tyfive

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Brandon Nakashima SETUP
What the tape says

Brandon Nakashima pressure: $25.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$25.4K
6h
−$34.3K
tracked
$95.0K

8 verified profitable wallets: Brandon Nakashima · $8.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 63

Since latest market sweep: +3.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Brandon Nakashima or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-26 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Hamad Medjedovic and Brandon Nakashima in the Lyon Open, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Hamad Medjedovic' if Hamad Medjedovic advances against Brandon Nakashima. This market will resolve to 'Brandon Nakashima' if Brandon Nakashima advances against Hamad Medjedovic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x30f6…004f2 linked markets · $184 gross
0xc470…c7922 linked markets · $47 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Brandon Nakashima@ 90.0¢3m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Hamad Medjedovic@ 40.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -26.0pp1h INVALIDATED -9.0pp
Latest book event: Hamad Medjedovic DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $29.5K → $941 · 9s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Hamad Medjedovic; negative values favor Brandon Nakashima. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBrandon Nakashima · $25.4K
6hBrandon Nakashima · $34.3K
24hBrandon Nakashima · $35.9K

Hamad Medjedovic price VWAP

Volume-weighted Hamad Medjedovic price. Brandon Nakashima fills are converted to the complementary Hamad Medjedovic probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current7.5¢
VWAP 24h25.0¢▼ below by 17.5pp
VWAP 7d25.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Hamad Medjedovic price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$11.5K
30¢
$27.1K
25¢
$26.6K
20¢
$110
15¢
$6.5K
10¢
$22.1K
5¢
← now
$1.0K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set Handicap: Brandon Nakashima (-1.5) vs Hamad Medjedovic (+1.5)
49.5¢$5.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Hamad Medjedovic vs Brandon Nakashima
39.5¢$1.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Hamad Medjedovic vs Brandon Nakashima
34.5¢$667priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Brandon Nakashima (-3.5) vs Hamad Medjedovic (+3.5)
44.5¢$254priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Medjedovic vs. Nakashima: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢$145priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Hamad Medjedovic vs. Brandon Nakashima: Total Sets O/U 2.5
36.0¢$76priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Medjedovic vs. Nakashima: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
37.0¢$14priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Medjedovic vs. Nakashima: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesBrandon Nakashima$31.4K
BUY VWAP 79.3¢·14 fills
LuzzzerHamad Medjedovic$17.0K
BUY VWAP 31.0¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.