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Almaty Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Tomas Etcheverry

● quote 14s ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 5 daysLiquidity: $428.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $720.8KEvent: Almaty Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Tomas Etcheverry
100.0¢
Mattia Bellucci
0.1¢
Tomas Etcheverry
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 31 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:262 trades$254.2K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 13 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Mattia Bellucci · $59.4K net·31 wallets(2🐋)·$92.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMattia Bellucci$24.4K@ 54¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Tomas Etcheverry pressure: $22.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$22.6K
6h
+$10.0K
tracked
$254.2K

31 verified profitable wallets: Mattia Bellucci · $59.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +57.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 13 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 57.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Tomas Etcheverry or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-26 06:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Mattia Bellucci and Tomas Etcheverry in the Almaty Open, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mattia Bellucci' if Mattia Bellucci advances against Tomas Etcheverry. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Etcheverry' if Tomas Etcheverry advances against Mattia Bellucci. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xf09a…04502 linked markets · $88 gross
0x8152…5b512 linked markets · $2 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Mattia Bellucci52m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Mattia Bellucci1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Mattia Bellucci@ 43.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +5.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
MARKET SWEEPBUY Mattia Bellucci@ 56.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -6.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Tomas Etcheverry DOWN 6.5pp · near-book depth $6.0K → $6.6K · 10s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Mattia Bellucci; negative values favor Tomas Etcheverry. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTomas Etcheverry · $22.6K
6hMattia Bellucci · $10.0K
24hMattia Bellucci · $10.3K

Mattia Bellucci price VWAP

Volume-weighted Mattia Bellucci price. Tomas Etcheverry fills are converted to the complementary Mattia Bellucci probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h66.7¢▲ above by 33.3pp
VWAP 7d66.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Mattia Bellucci price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$15.4K
90¢
$49.2K
85¢
$26.3K
80¢
$6.0K
75¢
$10.6K
70¢
$74
65¢
$1.4K
60¢
$966
55¢
$17.8K
50¢
$62.2K
45¢
$36.7K
40¢
$23.5K
35¢
$8.3K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLMattia Bellucci$18.3K@ 91.4¢
tiger1050x0d23…2d56
🐋—35 minutes ago
BUYMattia Bellucci$10.0K@ 88.0¢0x246b…fb5b🐋—44 minutes ago
BUYMattia Bellucci$10.0K@ 50.0¢
tiger1050x0d23…2d56
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMattia Bellucci$24.4K@ 53.7¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Mattia Bellucci$26.3K
BUY VWAP 53.7¢·2 fills
UpTheBluesMattia Bellucci$18.3K
BUY VWAP 44.0¢·14 fills
tin54321Tomas Etcheverry$15.1K
BUY VWAP 15.5¢·4 fills
UpTheBluesTomas Etcheverry$14.9K
BUY VWAP 53.4¢·10 fills
ferdinand2Mattia Bellucci$11.6K
BUY VWAP 56.4¢·5 fills
0x246b…fb5bMattia Bellucci$10.0K
BUY VWAP 88.0¢·1 fill
tiger105Mattia Bellucci$10.0K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.