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Spread: Lakers (-5.5)

● quote just now
Sports→BasketballCloses: 30 minutesLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $23.0KEvent: Nuggets vs. Lakers
44.5¢
Lakers
55.5¢
Nuggets
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection81Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 56%
24h sample:5 trades$5.5K trackedsource coverage 24%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 57 min agoofficial metadata 11 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNuggets$4.4K@ 52¢·Moneyloverman

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Nuggets pressure: $4.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$4.4K
6h
−$5.5K
tracked
$5.5K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 56% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 57 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Nuggets or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-17 02:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Lakers" if the Lakers win the game by 6 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Nuggets". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Nuggets".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 16 at 10:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Lakers" if the Lakers win the game by 6 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Nuggets". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Nuggets". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Moneyloverman3 linked markets · $12.7K gross
Forecastication23 linked markets · $1.5K gross
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $358 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lakers; negative values favor Nuggets. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNuggets · $4.4K
6hNuggets · $5.5K
24hNuggets · $5.5K

Lakers price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lakers price. Nuggets fills are converted to the complementary Lakers probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current44.5¢
VWAP 24h48.5¢▼ below by 4.0pp
VWAP 7d48.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lakers price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$1.0K
45¢
$4.4K
40¢
← now
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.