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Thunder vs. Spurs

● quote just now
Sports→BasketballCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $1.4MOfficial 24h Vol: $164.4KEvent: Thunder vs. Spurs
50.5¢
Thunder
49.5¢
Spurs
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection20Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority72Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:60 trades$63.2K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Thunder · $31.0K net·4 wallets(1🐋)·$31.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYThunder$22.3K@ 52¢·0x1610…ae49

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Spurs SETUP
What the tape says

Spurs pressure: $12.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$12.3K
6h
+$14.5K
tracked
$63.2K

4 verified profitable wallets: Thunder · $31.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 72

Since latest large flow: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Spurs or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-21 01:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•If the Thunder win, the market will resolve to "Thunder".

•If the Spurs win, the market will resolve to "Spurs".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 20 at 9:30PM ET: If the Thunder win, the market will resolve to "Thunder". If the Spurs win, the market will resolve to "Spurs". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
UpTheBlues3 linked markets · $4.5K gross
rrrr1122332 linked markets · $2.8K gross
0x9e3e…f8823 linked markets · $1.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Thunder@ 52.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Thunder; negative values favor Spurs. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSpurs · $12.3K
6hThunder · $14.5K
24hThunder · $13.3K

Thunder price VWAP

Volume-weighted Thunder price. Spurs fills are converted to the complementary Thunder probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.5¢
VWAP 24h51.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d51.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Thunder price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$53.6K
45¢
$9.6K
40¢
$5
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSpurs$12.0K@ 49.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—27 minutes ago
BUYThunder$22.3K@ 52.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Spurs (-2.5)
42.5¢$22.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Spurs (-1.5)
45.5¢$18.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 232.5
45.5¢$8.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)
36.5¢$6.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 231.5
53.5¢$5.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 227.5
61.0¢$27priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5
54.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5
49.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x1610…ae49Thunder$27.6K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·2 fills
Sassy-BucketSpurs$12.0K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.