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Olbia: Maxim Mrva vs Francesco Maestrelli

● quote 288 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $168.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $200.2KEvent: Olbia: Maxim Mrva vs Francesco Maestrelli
99.9¢
Maxim Mrva
0.1¢
Francesco Maestrelli
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets80Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 64%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:48 trades$114.4K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 57%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 307 min agoofficial metadata 288 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Maxim Mrva · $1.4K net·8 wallets·$1.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLMaxim Mrva$42.2K@ 95¢·robustmst

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$64.9K
tracked
$114.4K

8 verified profitable wallets: Maxim Mrva · $1.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 64% · priority 0

Since latest position change: +99.5pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 288 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 307 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 288 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-22 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Maxim Mrva and Francesco Maestrelli in the Olbia, originally scheduled for October 15, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Maxim Mrva' if Maxim Mrva advances against Francesco Maestrelli. This market will resolve to 'Francesco Maestrelli' if Francesco Maestrelli advances against Maxim Mrva. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGESELL Maxim Mrva@ 99.5¢6h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Maxim Mrva6h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Maxim Mrva@ 55.0¢6h ago
15m CONFIRMED +19.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Maxim Mrva UP 3.2pp · near-book depth $7.3K → $1.9K · 13s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Maxim Mrva; negative values favor Francesco Maestrelli. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMaxim Mrva · $0
6hFrancesco Maestrelli · $64.9K
24hFrancesco Maestrelli · $26.3K

Maxim Mrva price VWAP

Volume-weighted Maxim Mrva price. Francesco Maestrelli fills are converted to the complementary Maxim Mrva probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h81.6¢▲ above by 18.3pp
VWAP 7d81.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Maxim Mrva price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$63.0K
90¢
$12.7K
85¢
$21
80¢
$2
75¢
$0
70¢
$18
65¢
$0
60¢
$6.4K
55¢
$192
50¢
$26.9K
45¢
$5.0K
40¢
$136
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLMaxim Mrva$42.2K@ 95.1¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 6 hours ago
SELLMaxim Mrva$12.5K@ 94.0¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

robustmstMaxim Mrva$29.0K
BUY VWAP 50.8¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.