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Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FURIA (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group B

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $766.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.7MEvent: Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FURIA (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group B
0.1¢
Legacy
100.0¢
FURIA
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets39Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 20 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:460 trades$758.1K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:FURIA · $33.3K net·20 wallets·$85.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLegacy$114.2K@ 42¢·Lakersfan111

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Legacy pressure: $40.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$40.8K
6h
−$3.7K
tracked
$758.1K

20 verified profitable wallets: FURIA · $33.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest liquidity absorption: +42.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 42.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Legacy or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-16 00:50 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Legacy" if Legacy win the match against FURIA.

•This market will resolve to "FURIA" if FURIA win the match against Legacy.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Winners' match between Legacy and FURIA in the Thunderpick World Championship Group B, initially scheduled for October 15, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Legacy" if Legacy win the match against FURIA. This market will resolve to "FURIA" if FURIA win the match against Legacy. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 29, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 15, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
5e46h3 linked markets · $59.2K gross
testBruno23 linked markets · $37.4K gross
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f3 linked markets · $35.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY FURIA@ 58.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +15.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Legacy@ 43.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -10.0pp1h INVALIDATED -34.4pp
POSITION CHANGEBUY Legacy@ 43.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -10.0pp1h INVALIDATED -34.4pp
ANTI CHASESELL Legacy2h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: FURIA DOWN 2.9pp · near-book depth $23.5K → $3.6K · 3s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Legacy; negative values favor FURIA. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLegacy · $40.8K
6hFURIA · $3.7K
24hLegacy · $115.0K

Legacy price VWAP

Volume-weighted Legacy price. FURIA fills are converted to the complementary Legacy probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h34.7¢▼ below by 34.6pp
VWAP 7d34.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Legacy price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$26.1K
65¢
$68
60¢
$3.2K
55¢
$3.9K
50¢
$2.6K
45¢
$50.4K
40¢
$453.2K
35¢
$10.6K
30¢
$3.6K
25¢
$28.0K
20¢
$11.4K
15¢
$12.2K
10¢
$14.1K
5¢
$32.6K
0¢
← now
$106.0K

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLFURIA$17.1K@ 99.9¢
qiu30x7f73…14f1
🐋—7 minutes ago
SELLFURIA$29.0K@ 99.9¢
qiu30x7f73…14f1
🐋—7 minutes ago
SELLFURIA$17.3K@ 99.9¢0xe2d0…7bbf🐋—9 minutes ago
BUYFURIA$13.5K@ 95.0¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋—13 minutes ago
BUYFURIA$14.4K@ 57.8¢
SineNooneEI0x3833…33d1
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFURIA$25.9K@ 57.0¢
qiu30x7f73…14f1
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYLegacy$10.0K@ 45.0¢
hurrican0x8718…5040
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYLegacy$12.0K@ 44.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYLegacy$17.4K@ 43.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLLegacy$18.9K@ 47.1¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYLegacy$15.0K@ 43.0¢
joseph006770xcdcc…935a
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYFURIA$20.0K@ 57.0¢
Diabolical-Prize0x7c37…6aeb
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYLegacy$19.0K@ 43.0¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYLegacy$11.5K@ 43.0¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYLegacy$114.2K@ 42.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 9 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5)
0.1¢$40.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 2.5
0.0¢$12.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
0.0¢$791priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5)
0.0¢$615priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5)
0.0¢$30priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5
0.0¢$5priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-9.5) vs Legacy (+9.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-6.5) vs Legacy (+6.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Lakersfan111Legacy$126.3K
BUY VWAP 42.2¢·2 fills
qiu3FURIA$25.9K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·1 fill
SineNooneEIFURIA$22.7K
BUY VWAP 57.5¢·2 fills
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fFURIA$22.4K
BUY VWAP 74.1¢·13 fills
Diabolical-PrizeFURIA$20.0K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·1 fill
BrotherObamaLegacy$19.0K
BUY VWAP 43.0¢·1 fill
0x1610…ae49Legacy$18.7K
BUY VWAP 37.9¢·2 fills
joseph00677Legacy$15.0K
BUY VWAP 43.0¢·1 fill
5e46hFURIA$13.5K
BUY VWAP 95.0¢·1 fill
cruzNBAFURIA$11.8K
BUY VWAP 68.0¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.