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Spread: Seahawks (-2.5)

● quote 17s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $663.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $245.5KEvent: Bears vs. Seahawks

Indicative prices · 17s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

56.5¢
Seahawks
43.5¢
Bears
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets57Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:11 trades$103.7K tracked9% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 102 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Bears · $84.9K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$99.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBears$92.0K@ 43¢·maz26

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$88.4K
tracked
$103.7K

2 verified profitable wallets: Bears · $84.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 102 minutes old.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-03 01:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Seahawks" if the Seahawks win the game by 3 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Bears".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Bears and Seahawks, scheduled for November 2 at 8:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Seahawks" if the Seahawks win the game by 3 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Bears". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Kch-Temp2 linked markets · $136.8K gross
surfandturf2 linked markets · $101.0K gross
0xbc43…96d33 linked markets · $24.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Bears@ 44.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Seahawks; negative values favor Bears. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSeahawks · $0
6hBears · $88.4K
24hBears · $80.3K

Seahawks price VWAP

Volume-weighted Seahawks price. Bears fills are converted to the complementary Seahawks probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current56.5¢
VWAP 24h57.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d57.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Seahawks price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
← now
$103.7K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYBears$92.0K@ 43.0¢
maz260x6754…e3bc
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Bears vs. Seahawks
38.5¢$614.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bears vs. Seahawks: O/U 46.5
49.5¢$169.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Seahawks (-10.5)
24.5¢$71.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)
47.5¢$49.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Seahawks (-13.5)
19.5¢$44.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Bears (-14.5)
7.15¢$19.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Bears (-3.5)
26.5¢$12.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bears vs. Seahawks: O/U 44.5
55.5¢$33priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

maz26Bears$92.0K
BUY VWAP 43.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.