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Roanne: Mika Brunold vs Benjamin Bonzi

● quote 182 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $311.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $246.1KEvent: Roanne: Mika Brunold vs Benjamin Bonzi
99.9¢
Mika Brunold
3.0¢
Benjamin Bonzi
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets95Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:99 trades$122.9K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 50%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 182 min agoofficial metadata 183 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Mika Brunold · $18.7K net·7 wallets·$19.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLMika Brunold$31.5K@ 100¢·hurrican

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$12.4K
tracked
$122.9K

7 verified profitable wallets: Mika Brunold · $18.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +4.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 182 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 182 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 183 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-21 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Mika Brunold and Benjamin Bonzi in the Roanne, originally scheduled for October 14, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mika Brunold' if Mika Brunold advances against Benjamin Bonzi. This market will resolve to 'Benjamin Bonzi' if Benjamin Bonzi advances against Mika Brunold. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Mika Brunold@ 96.0¢4h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
MARKET SWEEPBUY Mika Brunold@ 88.0¢4h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Benjamin Bonzi@ 86.0¢4h ago
15m INVALIDATED -63.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Mika Brunold UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $323 → $18.9K · 4s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Mika Brunold; negative values favor Benjamin Bonzi. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMika Brunold · $0
6hBenjamin Bonzi · $12.4K
24hBenjamin Bonzi · $12.4K

Mika Brunold price VWAP

Volume-weighted Mika Brunold price. Benjamin Bonzi fills are converted to the complementary Mika Brunold probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h70.9¢▲ above by 29.0pp
VWAP 7d70.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Mika Brunold price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$34.0K
90¢
$1.9K
85¢
$27.0K
80¢
$24
75¢
$14.8K
70¢
$2.5K
65¢
$1.2K
60¢
$3.0K
55¢
$2.2K
50¢
$1.9K
45¢
$5.2K
40¢
$8.9K
35¢
$8
30¢
$3.3K
25¢
$574
20¢
$251
15¢
$15.0K
10¢
$1.2K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLMika Brunold$31.5K@ 99.9¢
hurrican0x8718…5040
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYMika Brunold$27.0K@ 85.6¢
hurrican0x8718…5040
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYBenjamin Bonzi$15.0K@ 82.5¢
hurrican0x8718…5040
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

hurricanMika Brunold$27.0K
BUY VWAP 85.6¢·1 fill
hurricanBenjamin Bonzi$15.0K
BUY VWAP 82.5¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesMika Brunold$13.2K
BUY VWAP 74.1¢·8 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.