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Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

● quote 37s ago
Politics→Closes: about 2 yearsLiquidity: $246.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $55.2KEvent: Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
16.6¢
YES
83.5¢
NO
0.9¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution94Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 52%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:73 trades$4.3K trackedsource coverage 8%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 62 min agoofficial metadata 8 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $62 net·4 wallets·$3.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYES$4.4K@ 19¢·0x95da…b238

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$672
tracked
$4.3K

4 verified profitable wallets: NO · $62 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.9¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 52% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 62 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2028-11-07 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xaba6…0cd92 linked markets · $40.0K gross
Slaber2 linked markets · $14.2K gross
0x619c…3c432 linked markets · $5.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 75.8¢39d ago
15m STALLED +0.1pp1h STALLED +0.1pp6h STALLED +0.2pp24h STALLED +0.3pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hNO · $672
24hNO · $127

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current16.6¢
VWAP 24h16.7¢▼ below by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d18.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$33.5K
15¢
← now
$79.4K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$32.9K@ 73.2¢
Jsram0x8372…5223
🐋—about 1 month ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.